2030 Outlook: Vietnam Retail Market to Grow 10-12% Annually

Domestic Market 2026–2030: Forecasted Growth of 10–12%

The 2026–2030 period is forecasted to offer significant room for double-digit growth in the domestic market; however, to achieve this result, businesses must overcome numerous difficult tests.

Growth Potential According to the 2025 Report by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), the domestic market in the 2026–2030 period is expected to be a high-growth phase for Vietnam’s economy, linked to a shift in the development model towards greater reliance on science, technology, innovation, digital transformation, and green transition.

The target for average GDP growth is 7.5 – 8.5%/year (striving for approximately 10%), with GDP per capita reaching USD 7,400 – 7,600 by 2030. This creates a vital foundation for expanding domestic purchasing power.

With these indicators, the scale of the retail market for goods and services is forecast to grow by 10 – 12%/year, reaching approximately VND 11.5 – 12.5 quadrillion (equivalent to USD 450 billion) by 2030. This figure clearly reflects the immense room for growth in the domestic market, especially as Vietnam is expected to have about 104 million people by 2030, ranking 15th in the world in population size.

Notably, the rural area, which accounts for about 60% of the population, is experiencing faster income growth than urban areas, with a target to increase income by 2.5 – 3 times by 2030 compared to 2020. This opens up new consumption spaces beyond major cities.

Another important driver is the trend of urbanization and infrastructure development. The urbanization rate is expected to exceed 50% by 2030, linked with the orientation of developing the urban system into a network, with strong investment in public transport and underground spaces. This provides favorable conditions to expand and upgrade the modern retail distribution network with supermarkets, shopping centers, and service-integrated retail models.

Furthermore, digitalization is identified as a key growth driver for the domestic market in the coming period. According to Government targets:

• Digital Economy: Striving to contribute approximately 30% of GDP by 2030.
• E-government: Vietnam aims to be among the top 50 leading countries.
• E-commerce: Forecast to continue growing by about 20%/year, reaching a scale of approximately USD 70 billion by 2030, ranking third in Southeast Asia.
• Digital Consumption: The explosion of cashless payments and digital banking services creates a foundation for deep and wide digital consumption.

regarding market structure, the 2026–2030 period is forecast to see a distinct shift from traditional to modern distribution channels. The proportion of retail via modern channels is forecast to reach approximately 40% by 2030. This will be accompanied by the formation of multi-channel and omni-channel retail ecosystems, integrating Online – Offline – Logistics. Retail points will not only be places for shopping but will become spaces for experiences and general services.

International Experience: Analyzing the experience of neighboring countries shows that viewing the domestic market as a “buffer” for long-term growth helps these economies reduce external dependence.

• China: Promotes the “Dual Circulation” strategy, where the domestic market plays a central role, linked with strong investment in logistics infrastructure, e-commerce, and digital consumption.
• Thailand: With a smaller scale, focuses on developing modern retail, tourism, domestic consumption, and distribution chains linked with domestic products.

Identifying Challenges and Recommendations from Practice Despite the positive outlook, the MOIT report also points out several existing issues that could constrain the development of the domestic market in the near future.

1. Business Environment: Administrative procedures remain complex and dispersed across many agencies and levels, causing retail enterprises to lose significant time and costs before becoming operational, especially when expanding networks to new localities. Premise rental costs in major cities continuously rise with real estate prices, becoming a heavy burden, especially for SMEs.

2. Human Resources: The modern retail sector is growing fast but lacks high-quality human resources with skills in governance, technology application, and data analysis. Meanwhile, unskilled and part-time labor accounts for a large proportion, with unattractive wages and high turnover rates, making it difficult for businesses to invest in long-term training.

3. Access to Capital: This is a notable bottleneck. The majority of distribution and retail enterprises are SMEs with limited financial capacity and few collateral assets, while the initial capital demand for infrastructure, technology, and logistics is very large. Complex borrowing procedures and difficulty accessing preferential packages prevent many businesses from scaling up or transforming models.

4. Market Fairness: Unhealthy competition, counterfeit goods, poor-quality goods, origin fraud, and non-transparent information remain common, especially on online platforms. This not only erodes consumer confidence but also disadvantages legitimate businesses and hinders the building of Vietnamese brands. Consumer protection work, especially in the digital environment and rural/remote areas, still has limitations regarding resources and enforcement efficiency.

Recommendations: Based on practical reality and international experience, the report proposes several recommendations:

• Administrative Reform: Strong reform and standardization of processes nationwide to reduce compliance costs for businesses is a prerequisite.
• Infrastructure Investment: Investment in logistics and distribution infrastructure needs to be one step ahead, considering this the “backbone” of the domestic market.
• SME Support: Policies to support SMEs must be more substantive, ranging from credit access and human resource training to digital transformation support.
• Market Surveillance: Must be accompanied by technology application, database construction, and enhanced inter-agency coordination to ensure a healthy competitive environment and protect consumers.

Forecast Recap: By 2030, Vietnam’s retail market scale for goods and services is expected to reach approximately VND 11.5 – 12.5 quadrillion (equivalent to USD 450 billion).