Economic Report: Vietnam’s 8.02% Growth & 2026 Outlook
GDP 2025 Grows by 8.02%: Foundation for Higher Growth Targets
Vietnam’s GDP growth of 8.02% in 2025 not only reflects macroeconomic recovery and stability but also opens up space and momentum for Vietnam to aim for higher growth targets.
2025 GDP: High Growth Amidst Innovation Requirements According to the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment), Vietnam’s economic growth (GDP) in 2025 is estimated to increase by 8.02% compared to the previous year, lower only than the growth rate of 2022 in the 2011–2025 period. Specifically, in Q4/2025, GDP increased by 8.46%, the highest among Q4s in the same period, continuing the trend of each subsequent quarter being higher than the previous one, showing a clearly consolidated recovery momentum.
Sectoral Performance:
- Service Sector: Increased by 8.62%, making the largest contribution of 51.08% to overall growth.
- Industry and Construction: Increased by 8.95%, contributing 43.62%.
- Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery: Increased by 3.78%, contributing 5.30%.
- Manufacturing: Notably, processing and manufacturing increased by nearly 10%, continuing to hold the role of the economy’s main driver.
It can be said that Vietnam’s economy in 2025 was relatively stable in a volatile global context. However, besides the achieved results, experts believe the biggest challenge of the coming period lies not in maintaining high growth rates, but in renewing existing growth drivers.
Restructuring the Three Pillars At the Vietnam Economic Forum, Dr. Tran Du Lich – Chairman of the Advisory Council for implementing National Assembly Resolution 98/2023, stated that the recovery and growth model in recent times has mainly relied on three pillars: Domestic Market, Exports, and Public Investment. This approach has yielded positive results, helping the economy overcome difficult periods.
However, structural limitations are gradually being revealed. Regarding exports, although turnover continuously increases and global market share improves, the localization rate in export products remains low, making the actual value-added retained by the economy incommensurate.
Data Insight: In 2007, Vietnam accounted for about 1.3% of the world population but only contributed 0.3% of global export turnover. By 2024, the export market share increased to about 1.6%, higher than the population ratio. Nevertheless, the export-led growth model in its current form is approaching its limit, requiring restructuring towards enhancing domestic value.
Regarding public investment, the commencement of 234 major projects at the end of 2025 with a total capital of approximately VND 3.4 quadrillion (over 80% being public investment capital) shows a very clear “leading” role. But the issue is the spillover effect and efficiency of public investment to truly become “bait capital” for the private sector. If the current three pillars do not undergo qualitative changes, double-digit growth targets in the medium and long term will be very difficult to achieve.
New Drivers for Sustainable Growth According to Dr. Tran Du Lich, Vietnam’s new growth drivers need to be based on two key pillars:
- Science – Technology & Innovation linked with the Digital Economy.
- Institutional Reform towards enhancing competition, transparency, and efficiency.
These are prerequisites to improve productivity and create new growth space.
2026 is identified as the pivotal year after the 14th National Party Congress, posing a double problem for economic management: maintaining macro stability amidst rising inflationary pressure while promoting higher growth. Simultaneously, the implementation of a series of new laws along with the system of guiding decrees and circulars also harbors the risk of arising bottlenecks if effective coordination mechanisms are lacking.
Long-term Vision: Escaping the Trap At the “Credit Market and Macroeconomic Issues Forum” held on December 24, 2025, Dr. Can Van Luc, Member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, suggested that Vietnam needs a sustainable and inclusive development model based on four pillars:
- High growth coupled with sustainability.
- Transforming the growth model based on science-technology and institutional reform.
- Flexible development strategy according to international experience.
- Effective mobilization, allocation, and use of economic resources.
According to the World Bank, out of 142 middle-income countries, only 34 countries have overcome the “middle-income trap.” The common point of successful countries is the effective combination of three elements: increasing investment, adopting technology, and innovation. For Vietnam, experts suggest implementing all three pillars simultaneously instead of a rigid sequential approach.
The Capital Challenge ($260 Billion Gap) One of the key issues for the coming period is capital. According to Dr. Can Van Luc, the research group has built two growth scenarios for the 2026–2030 period:
- Target Scenario: Approximately 10% or more.
- Prudent Scenario: At 9%, reflecting increasing risks.
Reality shows that natural disasters and global fluctuations can reduce GDP by up to 0.8 percentage points per year (equivalent to about VND 100 trillion). With the above growth scenarios, total social investment capital by 2030 needs to reach about 38 – 39% of GDP, while in 2025 it was only at 33.5%. This requires Vietnam to mobilize an additional USD 250–260 billion, a massive challenge.
Experts also warn that for a long time, we have often focused on the scale of capital mobilization, while the issue of allocation and efficiency of capital use has not been placed at the right level. This is the decisive factor for the quality and sustainability of growth.
Conclusion In that context, macroeconomic stability needs to be placed in parallel with growth targets. It is not a choice between the two, but close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, directing credit into production and business, especially SMEs.
According to economist Vo Tri Thanh, Vietnam is pursuing ambitious development goals. Growth needs to be linked with green growth, harmonizing economic, environmental, and social factors on the foundation of maintaining macroeconomic stability.
The year 2025 closes with a GDP growth rate of 8.02%, reflecting the economy’s recovery efforts. However, entering 2026, the challenge lies not only in the growth figure but in the quality, motivation, and policy implementation capacity to realize higher and more sustainable growth targets.
