Experts: Vietnam Poised for Double-Digit Growth in 2026

The “New Normal” Unlocks Drivers for Vietnam’s Economic Growth

On January 13, the FChoice 2025 Honoring Ceremony and the seminar “Double-Digit Economic Growth Drivers and Investment Opportunities in 2026” took place in Hanoi.

Shifting Economic Development Mindset Speaking at the forum, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, former President of the Vietnam Institute of Economics and member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, emphasized that in 2025, Vietnam’s economy witnessed very strong changes in apparatus, mechanisms, and policies.

Many major decisions were implemented in a short time, from organizing the apparatus to removing obstacles for projects that had been stagnant for many years. Things that were once considered “extraordinary” are gradually becoming the “new normal”.

According to Dr. Thien, the most key point of the current “new normal” is that Vietnam is making things that are very normal in the world become its true development foundation.

• The Private Sector: The most typical example is the perception of the private economic sector. Globally, viewing the private sector as a development driver is obvious. For Vietnam, only at this stage has that mindset been placed in the right position clearly, consistently, and decisively. Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW of the Politburo on private economic development has created a fundamental shift in thinking about the growth model, holding special importance for market and social confidence.

Second, the change in policy approach. Previously, we often issued many correct resolutions but implemented them in a fragmented manner, lacking systemic nature, so efficiency was not high. This time, major guidelines are designed towards synchronization, interconnection, and holistic approach, from institutions, investment, and integration to science and technology. This cross-cutting and systemic approach creates a new momentum, changing the general situation instead of just improving individual points.

Third, the clear movement of the growth model. For the first time, the private sector is placed at the center of the economy. Science, technology, and innovation are identified as key productive forces with very clear political commitments and more substantive implementation capabilities than before. Additionally, infrastructure development is approached with an “ahead of the curve” spirit, systematic nature, and long-term vision, creating a foundation for growth for many decades.

“The big question now is the execution capacity of the apparatus. Everyone is waiting for the 14th Party Congress with the expectation of specific action programs, ensuring growth linked with efficiency, economical use of resources, and limiting waste,” said Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien. He emphasized that if this is achieved, the current “new normal” can completely create breakthrough development results in the coming period.

New Development Atmosphere From a business perspective, Mr. Dang Thanh Tam, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Kinh Bac City Development Holding Corporation (KBC), believed that the process of restructuring Vietnam’s economic apparatus is creating clear changes, especially in the speed of investment decision-making by ministries, sectors, and localities.

According to Mr. Tam, while working directly with foreign investors, it is noticeable that investment decisions are now implemented significantly faster than before. Accelerating progress helps minimize resource waste. He assessed that spread-out and inefficient investment could create inflationary pressure, while focused, rapid, and effective investment both supports inflation control and promotes sustainable growth.

Addressing long-term development orientation, the KBC Chairman emphasized the necessity of promoting localization and increasing domestic surplus value. When competitiveness is enhanced, the economy will create more substantive value, thereby forming a foundation for the double-digit growth target in the future.

Mr. Dang Thanh Tam also highly appreciated the role of State diplomacy, Government diplomacy, and people-to-people diplomacy in maintaining a stable environment for economic development. Vietnam establishing Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with many major countries such as Russia, China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and India has affirmed an open foreign policy, contributing to building trust with international partners and ensuring economic stability in a volatile global context.

Labor Potential: According to Mr. Tam, Vietnam is also in a “golden population” period with a diligent workforce. Currently, many countries with aging populations like the Schengen bloc are very “thirsty” for labor and are ready to receive about 500,000 Vietnamese workers with high salaries. This is a great opportunity because after 3 years of working, when they return, they will be a high-quality human resource, bringing international skills and mindset to build the homeland.

“While countries like Japan or South Korea are facing many difficulties in growth drivers, the atmosphere in Vietnam is rising very high. The remaining issue is how we absorb capital, enforce policies, and implement projects through a unified master plan from the Central to local levels,” he emphasized.

Economic Data: On average in the 2021-2025 period, growth reached about 6.3%, higher than the previous period. If excluding 2021 which was heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the average growth in the 2022-2025 period reached 7.13%, exceeding the 5-year socio-economic development plan target.

The stable macroeconomic foundation along with new growth drivers are creating important room to aim for high growth targets in 2026 and subsequent years.