Vietnam Aims for Double-Digit Growth: The 2026-2030 Strategy
HANOI, January 6, 2026 – The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has officially submitted updated data and feedback to the Central Policy and Strategy Committee regarding the economic growth scenarios for the 2026-2030 period. This submission is a critical step in formulating the project to be presented to the 14th Party Central Committee, specifically targeting a “double-digit” growth ambition.
2025 Performance: A Strong Baseline
In its report, MOIT provided supplementary data for 2025, which serves as the foundational year for the upcoming five-year plan. The data reveals robust performance across key industrial and trade sectors:
- Trade & Exports: The growth of merchandise export turnover in 2025 is estimated at 16.27%, significantly surpassing the baseline scenario of 9-10%. Import turnover also saw strong growth at 17.6%.
- Industrial Strength: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth is recorded at 9.3%, with the processing and manufacturing sector growing by 10.6%. Notably, high-tech industrial products account for 45% of the processing and manufacturing sector.
- Digital Economy: E-commerce sales revenue surged by 25.5% in 2025, outperforming the 20-22% baseline expectation.
The 2026-2030 Growth Scenarios
The proposal outlines three primary economic scenarios for the next five years, reflecting varying levels of ambition for Vietnam’s GDP growth:
- Average Scenario: Targets average GDP growth of 7.5%.
- High-Average Scenario: Targets average GDP growth of 8.5%.
- Target “Double-Digit” Scenario: Targets an average GDP growth of 10%.
Under the most ambitious 10% Target Scenario, the plan aims for significant economic milestones by 2030:
- GDP Per Capita: Reaching $8,500 by the end of the period, compared to $5,000 in 2025.
- Total GDP (Current Prices): Reaching approximately 24,625 trillion VND.
- Investment Needs: To fuel this growth, the total social investment capital required is estimated at 38.9% of GDP.
Sector-Specific Targets (2026-2030)
The MOIT report details specific goals for key sectors under the baseline scenario for the upcoming period:
Industry & Manufacturing
- High-Tech Focus: The proportion of high-tech industrial product value in the processing and manufacturing industries is targeted at 45-48%.
- Localization: The localization rate for key industries, such as textiles and garments, aims for 50-55%.
- Green Production: The percentage of industrial facilities applying green production methods is targeted to reach 35-40%.
Trade & Commerce
- E-Commerce Dominance: E-commerce sales are projected to grow by 20-22% annually.
- Modern Retail: The distribution of goods via modern retail systems is expected to reach 38-42%.
- Logistics: Logistics costs are targeted to decrease to 10-15% of GDP.
Energy Transition
- Renewables: The share of renewable energy (excluding hydropower) in the power structure is targeted at 31-34%.
- Efficiency: 60-65% of industrial enterprises are expected to apply energy-saving and efficient solutions.
- Emission Reduction: CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are targeted to reduce by 8-10%.
The submission underscores the government’s focus on shifting the economic model towards high-tech manufacturing, digital transformation, and sustainable energy to achieve breakthrough growth in the next term.
