Vietnam Economy Soars with 8.02% GDP in 2025: MoIT Report Outlines 2026 Outlook

Vietnam Enters 2026 with 8.02% GDP Growth and Record Trade Turnover

Vietnam concluded 2025 with impressive economic achievements, securing its position among the top performing economies globally. The Vietnam Institute of Strategy and Policy for Industry and Trade (VIOIT) has released its January 2026 report, analyzing the socio-economic situation and forecasting impacts on industry, energy, and trade.

2025: A Year of Breakthrough Growth According to the report dated January 29, 2026, despite global volatility, Vietnam’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth in 2025.

GDP Growth: Vietnam achieved a GDP growth rate of 8.02%, meeting the set target and placing the country in the group of 21 economies with outstanding growth and macroeconomic stability.
Economic Scale: The GDP scale at current prices is estimated at 12,847.6 trillion VND (equivalent to 514 billion USD), an increase of 38 billion USD compared to 2024. GDP per capita reached 5,026 USD.
Trade Milestone: Import-export turnover set a historical record of over 930 billion USD, positioning Vietnam among the top 25 economies with the largest trade scale globally. The trade surplus was approximately 20.03 billion USD.
FDI Surge: Realized Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached 27.62 billion USD (+9.0%), the highest level in the past 5 years.

Sectoral Performance:

Industry & Construction: Remained the main driver, increasing by 8.95%. The processing and manufacturing industry grew by nearly 9.97%, contributing significantly to the economy.
Services: Recovered clearly with an increase of 8.62%, driven by domestic consumption and a tourism breakthrough.
Business Vitality: 2025 saw 195.1 thousand newly established enterprises, a 24.1% increase compared to the previous year.

Global Context: “New Normal” and Trade Shifts The VIOIT report highlights that the global economy in 2025 showed better-than-expected resilience against geopolitical shocks. Global growth is estimated at 2.7–3.2% for 2025.

Investment Trends: Investment in AI, data, and innovation has become a new trend and a key driver for competitiveness.
Trade Tensions: Notable events include Mexico increasing tariffs on goods from countries without FTAs (targeting Asia) starting Jan 1, 2026 , and Canada reducing tariffs on Chinese EVs to 6.1% to resolve agricultural trade disputes.
Outlook: The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.3% in 2026 , while the World Bank projects 2.6%.

Domestic Outlook 2026: Opportunities and Challenges Entering 2026, Vietnam faces a mix of opportunities from new policies and challenges from the global environment.

Policy Impacts (Effective Jan 1, 2026):

Minimum Wage: Regional minimum wages increased, with Region I rising to 5,310,000 VND/month.
Tax Reforms: The Law on Special Consumption Tax adds sugary drinks (>5g/100ml) and certain air conditioners to the taxable list. The VAT reduction policy continues to support consumption.
Land Law: Resolution 254/2025/QH15 resolves difficulties in land law implementation, expanding cases for land recovery for Free Trade Zones and international financial centers.
Credit: The State Bank of Vietnam set a credit growth target of approximately 15% for 2026, prioritizing production and export sectors.

Forecast for Industrial & Trade Development:

Positive Drivers: The stable macro environment and credit priority for manufacturing will help enterprises expand. Shifts in North American trade (USMCA tensions) could position Vietnam as a potential alternative supply hub.
Risks: Protectionism is rising. Mexico’s tariff hike on non-FTA countries and stricter US origin controls pose challenges. Additionally, the EU’s proposed MFN reform could tighten market access based on environmental standards.

Energy Security: A Top Priority With the goal of “double-digit” growth in the coming years, energy demand is expected to surge.

Coal Imports: Reached a record high in 2025 to ensure electricity supply, reflecting short-term pressure on energy security.
Policy Moves: On January 16, 2026, MOIT released draft regulations on offshore wind power, aiming to remove bottlenecks in survey conditions and investment approval.
Recommendation: The report urges the government to prioritize the national energy system’s capacity as the number one condition for economic growth, focusing on grid safety and capacity release.

Strategic Recommendations from VIOIT

1. For the Government:

Macro Stability: Maintain macro stability as a core competitive advantage. Coordinate fiscal and monetary policies flexibly.
Growth Drivers: Renew traditional drivers (export, investment, consumption) and exploit new ones (digital economy, green transition, circular economy).
Target: Strive for GDP growth of 10% or higher in the 2026-2030 period.

2. For the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT):

Trade Promotion: Organize the Spring Fair in early Feb 2026 to boost consumption. Effectively utilize 17 signed FTAs and expand to Halal, Middle East, and Latin American markets.
IUU Yellow Card: Determinately resolve issues to remove the EC’s “yellow card” by April 2026.
Energy: Complete the legal framework for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to promote clean energy transition.

3. For Enterprises:

Transformation: Proactively invest in clean technology, digital transformation, and supply chain transparency to meet new global standards.
Adaptation: Shift towards higher value-added export segments and diversify markets to mitigate external shocks.