Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for November 10, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Exports Aiming for New Record Vietnam’s total import-export turnover for 2025 could reach a new milestone of approximately $900 billion, with exports expected to bring in over $450 billion.

• 10-Month Performance: According to the General Statistics Office, total trade turnover in the first 10 months reached $762.44 billion (up 17.4%). Exports alone reached $391 billion (up 16.2%) .
• “Go Global” Program: To support businesses in reaching international markets sustainably, the Prime Minister has tasked the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) with developing the “Go Global Program,” to be submitted for approval in 2025. This program will outline a roadmap for market expansion, policy support, and strategic sectors .

2. Seafood Sector “Harvests” Billions in Peak Season The global seafood market has entered its “golden season,” with Vietnam earning $1.14 billion in October alone – the highest monthly figure in history.

• Record Performance: This is the third time seafood exports have exceeded $1 billion in a single month.
• Cumulative: In the first 10 months, seafood exports reached $9.31 billion (up 12.9%).
• Top Markets: Exports to China surged by 34.6%, the US by 6.2%, and Japan by 11.2%. Brazil saw the highest growth among major markets at 43.1% .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. Macroeconomy Stable, Inflation Controlled At the regular Government press conference on November 8, it was reported that Vietnam’s macroeconomy remained stable in the first 10 months of 2025. Inflation is under control, and major balances are ensured. The socio-economic situation continues to improve month-on-month, with 10-month results surpassing the same period in 2024 across most sectors .

2. Retail Sector Acceleration Vietnam’s retail market grew by nearly 11% in the first 9 months of 2025. The Prime Minister approved the Strategy for Developing Vietnam’s Retail Market to 2030 (Decision 2326/QD-TTg), aiming for an annual growth of 11-11.5%. The strategy emphasizes digital transformation, e-commerce, and modernizing retail infrastructure to make the sector a key growth driver .

3. Preparing to Start Key National Projects for 2026-2030 Growth The Politburo has issued Conclusion No. 203-KL/TW, urging preparations to start major national projects in transport, energy, and infrastructure in early 2026. This strategic move aims to create momentum for double-digit economic growth in the 2026-2030 period .

4. UOB: Q4 GDP Needs to Grow 9.7% to Hit Target UOB Bank raised Vietnam’s 2025 GDP forecast to 7.7%. However, to achieve the government’s ambitious target of 8.3-8.5%, Q4 growth would need to reach 9.7-10.5%. The Prime Minister has set a target of over 8.4% for Q4 to ensure full-year growth exceeds 8% .

C. ENERGY

1. Renewable Energy Capacity Cuts: Concerns Arise Wind and solar power projects are facing capacity cuts (curtailment) of 20-90% due to grid overload and surplus supply during low load periods.

• Situation: 6 wind power companies in Quang Tri petitioned for help, stating that cuts threaten their financial viability and risk bankruptcy.
• NSMO Explanation: The National Power System and Market Operation Company (NSMO) explained that heavy rains caused 80 hydro reservoirs to discharge floods (16,000 MW), coinciding with high wind output (3,400-4,000 MW), leading to a surplus. Cuts were necessary to ensure system safety .

2. China to End 100% Tax Exemption for EVs in 2026 From January 1, 2026, China will reduce the purchase tax exemption for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) from 100% to 50%. This policy change has triggered a rush to buy cars before the end of 2025 .

3. Sustainable Energy for Semiconductor Industry Clean energy is becoming a decisive factor for Vietnam to attract semiconductor investment. With abundant rare earth resources and a young workforce, Vietnam aims to become a regional semiconductor hub by 2040. A green energy strategy is crucial for this high-tech sector .

D. EXPORT – IMPORT & MARKETS

1. US Tariffs: Challenge & Opportunity for Wood Industry New US tariffs on wood and furniture (starting at 10-25%) pressure Vietnamese exporters but also drive restructuring. Businesses are urged to improve competitiveness and build trust in “Made in Vietnam” products to turn this challenge into an opportunity for quality improvement .

2. Tilapia Exports to US Surge 174% In the first 8 months of 2025, tilapia exports reached over $63 million, a 174% increase year-on-year, hitting a 5-year high. The US is the largest market, accounting for 62% of exports. Tilapia is emerging as a key export item alongside shrimp and pangasius .

3. Vietnam Imports Record $3 Billion in Seafood Vietnam spent nearly $2.73 billion importing seafood in 10 months (up 30%), a record high. Imports serve processing for export and domestic consumption due to unstable local supply. Major sources include India (shrimp), Indonesia, and Norway .

4. Coffee Prices Peak, But Risks Remain Vietnam’s coffee export price averaged $5,653/ton in 10 months (a 28-year high), with domestic prices exceeding 130,000 VND/kg. While exports surged 63.4% in value to $7.41 billion, businesses face risks from price volatility and high capital requirements. The potential US tariff exemption for coffee offers a positive outlook .

5. Fruit & Vegetable Exports to China Vietnam is narrowing the gap with Thailand in fruit exports to China. In the first 9 months, Vietnam accounted for 20% of China’s fruit imports ($20.3 billion total). Durian exports to neighbors surged 30.3% in Q3. However, businesses must strictly comply with China’s quality and traceability standards .

E. INDUSTRY

1. Steel Industry: Seeking a Way Out The steel industry faces a “grey picture” with global oversupply but domestic growth driven by public investment.

• Challenges: Exports face trade defense measures from the US, EU, and India. Domestic production capacity exceeds demand by over 35%.
• Outlook: The domestic market remains the main pillar for construction steel in the last 2 months of 2025 .

2. US Businesses Call for More Steel Tariffs US businesses have requested the Department of Commerce to add 700 steel-containing products to the list subject to increased import tariffs, citing disadvantageous pricing due to existing steel tariffs .

F. E-COMMERCE

1. E-commerce Growth Forecast at 25-27% The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts Vietnam’s e-commerce to grow by 25-27% in 2025.

• Challenges: Counterfeit and pirated goods remain a significant issue.
• Policy: The draft E-commerce Law aims to protect buyers without overly burdening sellers, adapting to new models like livestreaming.
• Event: The National E-commerce Week and Online Friday 2025 (Nov 13-17) will feature major promotions and activities to combat fake goods .

G. TRADE REMEDIES

1. Korea Imposes Tariffs on Robots: Lesson for Vietnam South Korea imposed provisional anti-dumping duties (21.17% – 43.6%) on industrial robots from Japan and China to protect its domestic industry. This serves as a lesson for Vietnam on proactive trade defense to safeguard domestic manufacturing capacity .

2. HRC Steel Anti-Dumping: Exemption Requests The Trade Remedies Authority is accepting exemption requests for the anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel from China (Decision 1959/QD-BCT). Exemptions may apply to specific types like stainless steel or certain plate forms not produced locally .