Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for November 26, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Vietnam Trade Turnover May Reach $900 Billion in 2025 At the Vietnam Export Promotion Forum 2025, the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency (MoIT) highlighted that despite global volatility, Vietnam’s exports remain a bright spot. In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of nearly $20 billion. The total import-export turnover for the year is expected to surpass $900 billion, the highest level ever recorded. This growth is driven by the shift in global supply chains, the boom in digital trade, and the “greening” of production .

2. Building “Safe Agricultural Brands” for Export Hanoi is successfully building high-value agricultural brands such as “Dan Phuong Golden Grapefruit”, “Boi Khe Fragrant Rice”, and “Dong Phu Organic Rice”. These certified safe products are not only dominating the domestic market but are also opening doors to international markets, marking a shift from quantity to quality and safety in agriculture .

B. LEGISLATIVE & ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. National Assembly Debates 5% VAT on Fertilizer On November 26, the National Assembly discussed the draft Law on Value Added Tax (amended). The most heated topic was whether to apply a 5% VAT on fertilizers (currently not subject to VAT).

• Support: Proponents argue that a 5% tax allows domestic fertilizer companies to deduct input VAT costs, reducing production costs and creating a level playing field with imports .
• Concern: Opponents worry that businesses might not lower prices, shifting the tax burden to farmers .
• Direction: National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man suggested approving the 5% rate but requested the Government to direct businesses not to increase selling prices, ensuring farmers’ benefits .

2. Digital Technology Revenue Hits $136 Billion Vietnam’s digital technology industry revenue is estimated at $136 billion in 2025. The sector has over 52,000 active businesses, creating 1.5 million jobs. The “Make in Vietnam” strategy is shifting from assembly to product creation and AI application .

C. ENERGY

1. Amending Electricity Law: Focus on Green Energy & Market Competition The National Assembly discussed the draft amended Electricity Law to address energy security and net-zero goals.

• Renewables: Delegates proposed stronger incentives for offshore wind and self-consumption rooftop solar .
• Nuclear: Consideration for nuclear power development was mentioned as a baseload source.
• Market: Emphasis on separating state management from business operations to ensure a transparent, competitive electricity market .

2. Waste-to-Energy Pricing Mechanisms The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) reported to the Prime Minister on electricity generation prices for waste-to-energy plants. Two options were proposed:

• Option 1: Investors negotiate prices with EVN within a frame issued by MoIT (similar to transitional renewables).
• Option 2 (Selected): A specific FIT (Feed-in-Tariff) price. For 2024, the equivalent price is calculated at roughly 2,400 VND/kWh. This aims to encourage investment in waste treatment .

3. New Petroleum Decree: Flexible Sourcing The MoIT is drafting a new decree to replace current petroleum regulations. A key change is allowing petrol distributors to purchase from multiple sources (traders) rather than being restricted to one. This aims to increase market flexibility and supply security .

D. EXPORT – IMPORT

1. Rice Export Prices Drop Vietnam’s 5% broken rice export price dropped to $508/ton (down $19 from the previous week). The decline is due to competitive pressure from Thailand, Pakistan, and the upcoming harvest season. Domestic paddy prices in the Mekong Delta also decreased slightly .

2. Rubber Exports to China In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam exported 1.06 million tons of rubber to China (down 13% in volume but up 13% in value). China accounts for 99.63% of Vietnam’s mixed rubber exports. The market faces pressure from low demand in the Chinese real estate and truck sectors .

3. Coffee Exports: Value Over Volume While coffee export volume in the first 10 months dropped by 11.1% (to 1.15 million tons), the turnover surged by 39.8% to reach $4.6 billion due to high global prices. Robusta prices remain volatile due to weather concerns in Vietnam and Brazil .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Ensuring Goods Supply for Tet 2026 Major retailers like Saigon Co.op and SATRA have increased stock by 30-40% to prepare for the Lunar New Year (Tet) 2026. HCMC has allocated nearly 26,000 billion VND for market stabilization. The focus is on essential food items and preventing price hikes .

2. E-commerce & Market Surveillance

• Black Friday Checks: Market surveillance forces are intensifying inspections during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, targeting counterfeit goods on livestreams and social media .
• Gold Market: Continuous monitoring of gold trading to prevent smuggling and origin fraud .

F. INDUSTRY & TRADE REMEDIES

1. Support Industry Database Needed Experts emphasize the need for a national database on the support industry. Currently, the lack of information hinders linkages between FDI firms (like Samsung, Toyota) and domestic suppliers. Only about 5,000 domestic firms operate in this sector, mostly tier 2 or 3 suppliers .

2. Good News for Tire Exports to US The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of the POR5 administrative review on anti-dumping duties for passenger vehicle tires from Vietnam. Over 60 Vietnamese exporters were determined to have a 0% dumping margin. This is a significant victory, maintaining market access for the rubber industry .