Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 11, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Exports Break Records: High Growth, High Pressure Data from the General Statistics Office and General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam’s export turnover in the first 11 months of 2025 reached $430.14 billion, an increase of 16.1% over the same period, officially surpassing the record figure of the entire year 2024 . This achievement consolidates an impressive trade surplus of over $20.5 billion. However, the growth structure reveals a significant imbalance: the domestic economic sector only reached $102.41 billion (down 1.7%, accounting for 23.8%), while the FDI sector reached $327.73 billion (up 23.1%, accounting for 76.2%) . This highlights a heavy dependence on the FDI supply chain.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. National Assembly Approves National Target Program (2026–2035) On the morning of December 11, the National Assembly officially approved the investment policy for the National Target Program on new rural construction, sustainable poverty reduction, and socio-economic development in ethnic minority and mountainous areas with a 90.91% approval rate. The total state budget capital for the 2026-2030 period is estimated at approximately 423,000 billion VND.

2. Cutting 38 Conditional Business Lines The National Assembly passed the amended Law on Investment, removing 38 conditional business lines that no longer meet criteria and modifying the scope of 20 others . This move aims to shift management from “pre-check” to “post-check” based on standards and regulations. The law also allows foreign investors to establish enterprises before obtaining an Investment Registration Certificate in specific cases, a significant reform to improve the business environment .

3. ADB Raises Vietnam’s 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 7.4% In its latest Asian Development Outlook report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) adjusted Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast from 6.7% (September forecast) to 7.4%, placing it in the group with the strongest upward adjustments. This contrasts with Singapore (4.1%) and the broader region. ADB assesses that exports remain strong, driven by demand for electronics and semiconductors, despite uncertainties from US trade policies.

4. Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Time The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points to 3.5-3.75%. The decision reflects a split within the Fed, with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. The “dot plot” suggests one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

C. ENERGY

1. Khanh Hoa Encourages Private Investment in Energy The Khanh Hoa Provincial People’s Committee issued a plan to implement Resolution 70-NQ/TW on ensuring national energy security. The plan emphasizes mobilizing social resources and strongly encouraging the private sector to participate in energy development, creating breakthroughs in science, technology, and digital transformation in the energy sector .

D. EXPORT – IMPORT

1. Exports to the US: Raising Standards to Overcome Barriers The US remains Vietnam’s largest export market, reaching $138.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2025 (accounting for over 32%). Electronics, phones, and computers led with an increase of over 40%. However, experts warn that hot growth could trigger trade defense investigations. Businesses are urged to adapt quickly to origin, labor, and environmental requirements, moving from a “selling market” mindset to a “reciprocal” approach to ensure supply chain security .

2. Vietnam Imports $23.5 Million of Chili Despite being a net exporter of chili ($95.2 million, up 21.2%), Vietnam spent nearly $15.5 million importing fresh chili (up 80%) and over $8 million on processed chili in the first 10 months of 2025 to cover domestic shortages at certain times .

3. Rice Export 2026 Outlook In the first 11 months of 2025, rice exports reached over 7.53 million tons worth $3.85 billion, down 10.9% in volume and 27.4% in value compared to the 2024 record . Markets shifted significantly: Indonesia dropped ~96%, while China increased ~165% and Bangladesh ~238 times . For 2026, the sector looks to the Philippines reopening imports in January and standardizing high-quality raw material zones.

4. Government Demands Removal of Logistics Bottlenecks The Government Office issued a directive addressing the “logistics trade deficit”. The Ministry of Transport and local authorities in HCMC and Hai Phong are tasked with developing strategies for international maritime centers and inland waterway transport to optimize costs . The Ministry of Industry and Trade will research administrative reforms in logistics and support businesses against trade defense measures .

5. Agriculture Aiming for $100 Billion Exports At the dialogue with farmers on December 10, the Prime Minister emphasized the strategic goal of raising agricultural exports to $100 billion. 11-month exports reached $64 billion. Key strategies include modernizing infrastructure, digital transformation, and expanding production cooperation abroad (Middle East, Africa, Latin America).

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Tet 2026: Prices Up, Baskets Smaller A survey indicates 1 in 5 households faces spending difficulties, leading to selective spending for Tet 2026 . Consumers are reducing order values and prioritizing essential, convenient products . Businesses like Vissan are increasing promotions (20-40% off) despite rising input costs to maintain purchasing power.

2. Vietnam-Cambodia Border Trade Infrastructure A review conference in An Giang highlighted that Vietnam-Cambodia border trade via An Giang grows by 12.7% annually. An Giang exports over $500 million/year and imports over $600 million/year across the border . However, infrastructure (warehouses, logistics) remains a bottleneck, and cross-border e-commerce is underdeveloped .

F. TRADE REMEDIES

1. Canada Issues Final Conclusion on Carbon Steel Wire The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) issued its final conclusion on the anti-dumping investigation into carbon steel wire. For Vietnam, Hoa Phat Steel Wire Co., Ltd. received a dumping margin of 5.7% (significantly reduced from the preliminary 13.4%), while other exporters face 158.9% . The final injury conclusion from the CITT is expected in early January 2026.