Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 12, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS & POLICY HIGHLIGHTS

1. Adjusting National Energy Master Plan is Urgent In light of the new Planning Law and breakthrough economic growth goals, adjusting the National Energy Master Plan has become urgent. This is a strategic shift to ensure energy security, realize international commitments, and set new development directions. Deputy Minister Nguyen Hoàng Long emphasized that this might be the first planning implemented right after the new law takes effect, requiring careful study and alignment with legal procedures. Experts at the MoIT workshop on December 11, 2025, noted that this adjustment is not just technical but reflects Vietnam’s strategic vision to balance rapid growth (double-digit targets for 2026-2030) with sustainable development and the Net Zero 2050 commitment.

2. Digital Transformation: QR Codes for C/O Transparency Vietnam officially announced the application of QR codes on Certificates of Origin (C/O) and updated the list of C/O issuing authorities to the WTO. This move demonstrates Vietnam’s determination to prevent origin fraud and push for national digital transformation. Following the implementation of 100% electronic C/O declarations, the MoIT has updated the WTO on C/O issuance procedures at the Import-Export Department and 34 local offices. The QR-integrated C/O sample allows WTO member countries to easily verify the origin of Vietnamese goods.

3. Drivers for Domestic Logistics Market Growth A report by Vietnam Report on the Top 10 reputable logistics companies in 2025 indicates the sector is in a pivotal phase, driven by global supply chain restructuring and digitalization. According to the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2025, Vietnam jumped 6 places in Digital Readiness. Digital transformation is optimizing operations and cutting costs. Additionally, global trade tensions are creating opportunities for supply chains to shift to Vietnam. With a stable macro foundation, trade surplus, and controlled inflation, the logistics market is poised for sustainable growth.

4. Cutting Administrative Procedures in 11 MoIT Sectors Deputy Prime Minister Pham Thi Thanh Tra signed Decision No. 2671/QD-TTg approving the plan to simplify administrative procedures in 11 sectors managed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, including alcohol, food safety, tobacco, gas, import-export, multi-level marketing, e-commerce, international trade, industrial explosives, electricity, and chemicals. Business conditions in 12 industries were also simplified.

5. Abolishing Old Biofuel Mixing Roadmap On December 11, 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son signed Decision No. 46/2025/QD-TTg abolishing the old 2012 decision on the biofuel mixing roadmap. The MoIT is tasked with assessing the domestic and imported ethanol supply, costs, and the impact on E10 gasoline prices. The Ministry must review the mixing capacity of key businesses, clarify responsibilities if supply fails, and propose management solutions to ensure E10 prices do not disadvantage citizens and enterprises.

B. INTERNATIONAL TRADE CONTEXT

1. US-China Trade War 2025 Recap The 2025 tariff war, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s special tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods, has complicated the global economic picture. While Washington aimed to bring supply chains back to the US, results are mixed: the US trade deficit remains wide, while China recorded a record trade surplus of over $1.076 trillion in 2025 by diversifying markets to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Experts note that US supply chains are shifting more towards Mexico rather than fully returning domestically, a process that takes years.

2. US Trade Deficit Shrinks, Exports Rise The US trade deficit dropped over 10% in September to $52.8 billion, the lowest since June 2020. Exports rose 3% to $289.3 billion. This improvement contributes to US GDP growth, estimated at 3.5% in Q3. Official data will be released on December 23.

3. China-EU Resume EV Negotiations China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the resumption of talks with the EU regarding a minimum price mechanism for Chinese electric vehicles to avoid anti-subsidy tariffs. Previously, the EU approved tariffs of up to 45.3% in October. Beijing hopes to reach a price agreement instead of tariffs to protect its market share in Europe amidst domestic profit pressure.

C. ENERGY

1. Russian Group Commits to Ninh Thuan 1 Nuclear Plant On December 11, PM Pham Minh Chinh held a phone call with Alexey Likhachev, Director General of Rosatom (Russia). Rosatom committed to cooperating with Vietnam to build the Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant using the most modern technology. They also pledged to transfer technology, localize nuclear products, and support the development of Vietnam’s nuclear industry for peaceful purposes. The PM assigned relevant ministries to coordinate with Rosatom on the principle of “harmonized benefits, shared risks.”

2. IAEA Completes Nuclear Infrastructure Review The IAEA completed its Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) in Vietnam, concluding that Vietnam has made significant strides to restart the Ninh Thuan nuclear project. The draft report offers 38 recommendations, emphasizing the need to strengthen legal frameworks for radiation and nuclear safety, human resource development, and strategies for fuel cycles and radioactive waste management. The final report is expected in Q2 2026.

3. Oil & Gas Planning: Pillar of Energy Security At a MoIT workshop, experts emphasized that completing the oil and gas plan is a strategic task to ensure primary energy supply amid resource depletion. Despite 6 new discoveries in 2021-2024 adding nearly 59 million tons of oil equivalent reserves, targets have not been fully met. Challenges include small marginal fields and high costs. The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) proposed incentives for deep-water exploration and the application of AI/ML in prospecting.

4. Electricity Supply Risks in 2026 The MoIT has approved the 2026 national power system operation plan with three scenarios. While basic supply is assured, risks of local shortages in the North remain due to delays in new large power sources, unfavorable hydrology, and declining gas supplies. The system will continue to rely heavily on coal and hydro. The total traditional power capacity expected to be added by end-2026 is about 4,411 MW.

5. Northern Power Grid Updates In the first 11 months of 2025, Northern Power Corporation (EVNNPC) energized nearly 70 110kV projects, a 134% increase year-on-year. Commercial power output reached 97.79 billion kWh (up 4.6%). Power loss was reduced to 3.45%.

D. EXPORT – IMPORT

1. Rice Exports: Prices Drop, Markets Shift In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam exported over 7.53 million tons of rice worth $3.85 billion. Average export prices fell to $511.09/ton. Export volume dropped 10.9% and value dropped 27.4% compared to the record year of 2024. Markets shifted significantly: exports to Indonesia fell 96% and Malaysia fell 32.5%, while exports to China surged 165% and Bangladesh increased 238 times. High-quality white and fragrant rice accounted for 69% of exports.

2. Iron & Steel Exports Drop Amid Trade Defense Measures In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam exported over 9.2 million tons of iron and steel worth nearly $6.1 billion, a decrease of ~26% in volume and ~29% in value. Exports to the EU dropped 35.9% and to the US dropped 52.6%. Steel faces the most trade defense measures, with recent anti-dumping duties from Thailand and new import regulations from the EU effective from December 4.

3. Wood Exports Forecast to Exceed $18 Billion The Vietnam Timber and Forest Product Association (VIFOREST) forecasts wood and forest product exports to exceed $18 billion in 2025. The industry aims for $25 billion by 2030, focusing on high value-added products, building national brands, and green production.

4. Shrimp Exports to US Face High Tax Risk Shrimp exports to the US reached $731 million by mid-November 2025 (up 8%). However, risks are rising from trade defense measures. Preliminary results of the POR19 review by the US Department of Commerce suggest an anti-dumping margin of up to 35.29%. A final decision is expected in early 2026. If unchanged, this rate would impose massive financial pressure on Vietnamese exporters.

5. Hanoi’s Supporting Industry Goal Hanoi aims to have 80 supporting industry products enter global distribution networks by 2030. The city plans to support 100 businesses in building cross-border e-commerce capabilities.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET & E-COMMERCE

1. Auto Sales Peak in 2025 November 2025 auto sales reached 39,338 units (VAMA data), up 4% from October. Including VinFast (23,186 EVs) and Hyundai (5,463 cars), the total market consumption was nearly 68,000 units in November. The surge is attributed to the final month of registration fee incentives for domestic cars.

2. E-commerce Management & Fake Goods Vietnam’s e-commerce market surpassed $25 billion in 2024. To ensure sustainable growth, the new E-commerce Law 2025 (expected effect in 2026) will expand management to social networks and livestreams, requiring seller identification via VNeID. Platforms must remove infringing stores within 24 hours.

3. IP Infringement on Digital Platforms Counterfeit goods on e-commerce are becoming harder to handle as sellers use livestreams to hide warehouse locations, often in high-security residential areas or operating from abroad. Mixing real and fake goods in orders is common. Authorities are empowering local agencies and establishing specialized IP courts to address these civil disputes.

4. Market Management Plan for 2026 The MoIT Minister approved the 2026 inspection plan for the Market Management force, focusing on anti-smuggling, trade fraud, counterfeit goods, and IP infringement to protect domestic production and consumers.

F. GREEN GROWTH & INDUSTRY

1. Green Transition Mandatory for FMCG For the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector, green transition has moved from a recommendation to a requirement due to fluctuating energy costs and stricter international standards. ESG compliance is now a key economic factor for cost reduction and risk management in supply chains.

2. Tightening Emission Quotas Vietnam is tightening emission quotas for electricity, steel, and cement to meet the Net Zero 2050 goal. The country has internalized international regulations through the Law on Environmental Protection 2020 and recent decrees, creating a legal corridor for the carbon market.