Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 16, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Many Export Items Set New Records According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, as of November 15, the country’s total import-export turnover reached over $801 billion, surpassing the result achieved in the entire year of 2024 ($786.29 billion) and becoming the highest level ever recorded.

• Breakdown: Exports reached $410.28 billion (up 16.1% year-on-year, equivalent to an increase of $59.8 billion). Imports reached $390.74 billion (up 18.4%, equivalent to an increase of $63.61 billion).
• Surplus: The trade balance recorded a surplus of $19.54 billion.
• Key Drivers: Seven product groups achieved an increase in export turnover of over $1 billion compared to the same period last year, including: Computers, electronic products and components (up $15.74 billion); Machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts (up $8.76 billion); Phones and components (up $3.36 billion); Textiles and garments (up $3.36 billion); Wood and wood products (up $2.26 billion); Footwear (up $1.99 billion); Coffee (up $1.52 billion) .

2. Textile and Garment Exports to Reach $44 Billion According to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), in 2025, textile and garment exports are estimated to reach $44 billion, an increase of 11.26% compared to 2024.

• Imports: The total import turnover of textile and garment materials and accessories is estimated at $25 billion, up 14.79%.
• Trade Surplus: The industry’s trade surplus is estimated at $19 billion, an increase of 6.93% compared to 2024.
• Top Markets: Exports to the US are estimated at $16.7 billion (up 12.33%); to CPTPP countries at $6 billion (up 11.83%); to the EU at $4.8 billion (up 11.41%); and to China at $4.7 billion (up 11.96%).
• 2026 Target: For 2026, the industry sets a goal of reaching $47 – 49 billion in export turnover .

3. Tra Fish Exports to the UK Surge According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in the first half of November 2025, tra fish exports to the UK reached nearly $3 million, up 22% compared to the same period in 2024.

• Cumulative: As of November 15, 2025, total tra fish exports to this market reached $60 million, up 8% year-on-year.
• Products: Frozen tra fish fillets (HS code 0304) are the main export item, accounting for 90% of the total value (reaching $54 million). Processed tra fish exports reached nearly $5 million (up 13%).
• Outlook: The UK is considered a bright spot for Vietnamese tra fish this year, with consistent growth recorded in most months. The UK economy is showing positive signs with falling inflation and recovering purchasing power, especially for white fish products .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. Logistics Costs: A “Bottleneck” for Agricultural Exports Despite impressive export turnover, Vietnamese agricultural products face a significant barrier: logistics costs are too high compared to regional competitors.

• Reality: Logistics costs in Vietnam account for about 16.8% – 17% of GDP, much higher than the global average (10.6%). For agricultural products alone, this cost accounts for 20-25%, and even up to 30% for fruits and vegetables.
• Comparison: In Thailand, logistics costs are only 12% of GDP, and globally it is 14%.
• Impact: High costs erode profits and reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods. For example, inconsistent transport infrastructure and a lack of cold storage lead to a post-harvest loss rate of 20-25%.
• Solution: Experts urge the development of specialized logistics centers for agriculture, linking road, rail, and waterways to optimize costs .

2. Adjusting Electricity Prices to Attract Investment The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) affirms that adjusting electricity prices is an objective necessity to ensure the financial balance of Vietnam Electricity (EVN) and to attract investment in power generation and transmission projects.

• Context: Input costs for electricity production (coal, gas, exchange rates) remain high. Maintaining low prices for too long will negatively impact energy security and the economy’s sustainability.
• Approach: Adjustments will be made cautiously, ensuring social security and minimizing impacts on production and people’s lives .

C. ENERGY

1. Electricity Prices: Need for a Market Mechanism Experts argue that moving towards a market-based electricity pricing mechanism is crucial.

• Current Issue: The current mechanism still involves cross-subsidies and does not fully reflect input cost fluctuations.
• Proposal: Accelerate the implementation of the competitive retail electricity market, allowing customers to choose suppliers. This will increase transparency and efficiency in the power sector .

2. Roof-top Solar Power Development: Removing Barriers The development of rooftop solar power, especially for self-consumption in industrial zones, is facing regulatory hurdles.

• Bottlenecks: Unclear regulations on fire safety, construction permits, and environmental standards for rooftop solar systems.
• Recommendation: MoIT and relevant ministries need to issue specific and simplified guidelines to encourage businesses to invest in green energy, helping them meet international green standards .

D. EXPORT – IMPORT

1. Vietnamese Shrimp Faces Challenges in the US Market The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the preliminary results of the anti-dumping duty administrative review (POR19) for Vietnamese shrimp.

• Preliminary Tax: The preliminary anti-dumping duty rate is up to 35.29%.
• Impact: If the final ruling (expected in early 2026) maintains this high rate, it will severely impact shrimp exports in 2026, causing financial pressure and the risk of losing market share.
• Double Tax: Vietnamese shrimp is also subject to countervailing duties (CVD) by the US, leading to a “double taxation” situation, increasing compliance costs and prices.
• Market Context: Shrimp exports to the US in Q3/2025 increased, reflecting cost pressures. Competitors like India, Indonesia, and Ecuador also face their own difficulties. Opportunities for Vietnam depend on a reasonable POR19 final result and compliance with new requirements .

2. Rubber Exports: Value Over Volume In the first 11 months of 2025, rubber exports decreased by 4% in volume but increased by 16% in value thanks to rising prices.

• Price: The average export price in November reached $1,895/ton, the highest since the beginning of the year.
• Markets: China remains the largest market (accounting for 70%), but exports to this market decreased in volume. Exports to India, Korea, and Indonesia saw strong growth .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Ensuring Goods Supply for Tet 2026 To prepare for the Lunar New Year (Tet) 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has directed localities and businesses to prepare sufficient sources of goods.

• Preparation: Enterprises have increased reserves of essential goods by 15-20% compared to normal days.
• Stabilization: Market stabilization programs are being implemented to prevent local shortages or price spikes.
• Promotion: Many promotional programs and trade fairs are being organized to stimulate consumer demand during the year-end season .