Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 17, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Vietnamese Crab Exports 2026: US Market as a “Locomotive” According to Vietnam Customs statistics, the US market alone reached nearly $67 million in the first 11 months, up 15% year-on-year. In November 2025 alone, crab exports reached nearly $10 million, with the US accounting for over 86% .

• Position: This affirms the US as the “locomotive” for Vietnamese crab, especially for pasteurized and processed crab meat where Vietnam has a competitive advantage.
• Context: The US imports about 62 million pounds of pasteurized crab meat annually. However, regulations like the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) are becoming barriers.
• Opportunity: The current period is seen as a “golden time” for the industry to perfect documentation and standardize traceability to meet MMPA requirements, avoiding export disruptions after 2026 .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. Tax Regime Change: Small Sellers Relieved, Big Households Worried With only two weeks left until the flat tax mechanism ends for household businesses, a major shift to self-declaration begins.

• Small Households: Approximately 90% of households (revenue under 500 million VND/year) are relieved as they are tax-exempt and not required to use electronic invoices (e-invoices), only needing to report revenue by Jan 31 .
• Large Households: Those with revenue over 1 billion VND must use e-invoices with tax codes. Households with revenue over 3 billion VND are worried about input invoices; they often buy from smaller households (revenue < 1 billion) who don’t issue e-invoices, making expense deduction difficult .
• Regulations: Tax rates remain unchanged (e.g., 1.5% for distribution). E-commerce platforms (Shopee, Lazada) will declare taxes for sellers, while sellers on cross-border platforms (Facebook, TikTok) must self-declare .

2. Vietnam’s Double-Digit Growth Goal: Feasible with Foundations At the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh highlighted that the economy has shown resilience.

• 2025 Estimates: GDP growth expected >8%, economy size ~$510 billion (32nd globally), trade volume reaching a record >$900 billion.
• Strategy: Vietnam aims for double-digit growth by promoting “dual transition” (green and digital), developing semiconductor/AI industries, and turning data into a resource. Stability is key, not sacrificing social progress for pure growth .

3. Growth Cannot Rely Solely on Bank Credit Dr. Nguyen Duc Hien (Central Economic Commission) emphasized that the banking system’s room to support growth is shrinking.

• Solution: Diversify capital channels (stock market, bonds). Currently, foreign ownership in the stock market is at a 5-year low.
• Private Sector: Improving the absorption capacity of the private sector and SME governance is key. Bond regulations need a new mindset, focusing on credit ratings rather than just collateral.

4. Domestic Carbon Exchange to Operate by 2026 The National Assembly’s Resolution requires the establishment and operation of a domestic carbon exchange by the end of 2026.

• Plan: Prioritize domestic market development, encourage carbon credit projects in renewables and forestry, and complete legal regulations for international exchange.

5. US Economy: Tariffs Bring in $200 Billion

• Tariffs: The US collected over $200 billion in tariffs in 2025 due to new policies by President Trump (including reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl taxes).
• Labor Market: Unemployment in the US hit 4.6% in November, the highest in 4 years, as high tariffs push up prices and dampen hiring sentiment .

C. ENERGY

1. Power Shortage Hinder Global Growth Even rich economies are facing power shortages due to the boom in AI and electric vehicles (EVs).

• Impact: In the Netherlands, ASML’s expansion depends on power availability; grid congestion could last 10 years. In the US and Europe, demand from data centers is surging.
• Warning: Bloomberg Economics warns that power stress reduces investment and long-term growth.

2. Biofuel (E10) Mandate: Businesses Concerned From June 1, 2026, all unleaded gasoline must be blended into E10.

• Preparation: Major players like PVOil and Petrolimex are readying infrastructure and sources (domestic and imported ethanol) .
• Concerns: Private and small enterprises are hesitant due to high investment costs for mixing tanks and uncertain consumer demand (citing the E5 experience). They urge for clear policies on price and quality to ensure business efficiency .

D. EXPORT – IMPORT

1. Export Growth Must Be Sustainable Vietnam’s exports reached $430.2 billion in 11 months (up 16.1%). 2025 exports are expected to exceed $470 billion .

• Challenges: Dependence on FDI (70-75% of exports), imported materials, and key markets (US for exports, China for imports).
• Strategy: Shift from width to depth, increasing domestic value-added and meeting green standards (ESG, emissions) which are now mandatory requirements.

2. Rice Exports: A Quiet Note In 11 months, rice exports reached 7.53 million tons ($3.85 billion), down 10.9% in volume and 27.4% in value.

• Market: Traditional markets like Indonesia and the Philippines cut imports. However, exports to China and Africa (Ghana, Senegal) grew .
• Outlook: 2026 exports will be influenced by the Philippines’ potential return in Jan 2026. Long-term export volume may stabilize around 5 million tons by 2030 due to reduced acreage.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Canna (Dong Rieng) Prices Plummet in Cao Bang Canna prices dropped to 1,000–1,200 VND/kg (from 3,000 VND last year), causing hardship for farmers while finished vermicelli prices remained stable.

• Action: Cao Bang province issued an urgent directive to manage purchasing and prices, preventing traders from squeezing farmers and encouraging contract farming via cooperatives.

2. Pork Prices Surge Quickly Pork prices increased by 20,000 VND to reach 66,000 VND/kg recently.

• Reason: Farmers are holding stock to fatten pigs to 120-130kg (instead of 100kg) to wait for higher prices, and traders are buying pigs to fatten (“nuôi gột”), causing a local supply shortage .

3. Hanoi Proactive for Tet 2026 Hanoi is preparing for Tet Binh Ngo 2026 with purchasing power expected to rise 3-20%.

• Preparation: 19 businesses participating in stabilization across 10,700 selling points. Goods reserves increased by 10-20%.

4. Market Management 2026 Focus In 2026, Market Surveillance forces will focus on e-commerce and health-related sectors.

• Reform: There is a proposal to upgrade the Ordinance on Market Management to a Law on Market Management to handle new challenges like cross-border trade and e-commerce violations effectively.

5. HCMC Ensures Food Safety for Tet HCMC inspected 250 farmers and found no pesticide violations. The city is pushing for safe food chains and traceability for pork and poultry to ensure supply for Tet 2026.

F. TRADE REMEDIES

1. Canada: Vietnamese Steel Wire Not Dumping The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) concluded that cooperating Vietnamese enterprises did not dump steel wire (0% tax). Non-cooperating firms face a 25.3% tax .

2. Mexico Investigates US Pork Mexico initiated an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into US pork imports amidst rising trade tensions.

3. China Cuts Duties on EU Pork China announced a significant reduction in anti-dumping duties on EU pork (to 4.9% – 19.8%) from the provisional 62.4%, effective Dec 17 for 5 years.