Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 18, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Vietnamese Fruits & Vegetables Set Record in China China remains the largest market for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables. despite stricter controls on Cadmium and Golden O in durian causing a slump, exports to this market are forecast to reach $5.5 billion this year.

• Outlook: With advantages in logistics (direct road, rail, and sea connections), Vietnam aims for $8-10 billion in fruit and vegetable exports to China in the coming years if opportunities from signed protocols are well utilized.
• Requirement: To maintain this position, businesses must constantly improve traceability, quality, and packaging .

2. Seafood Exports Year-End Breakout: Expected to Exceed $11 Billion According to VASEP, seafood exports in November 2025 reached nearly $990 million (up 6.6%).

• Forecast: The sector is expected to set a new record in 2025 with total turnover of $11.2 – 11.3 billion.
  • Shrimp: Expected to exceed $4.6 billion (new record).
  • Pangasius: Estimated at over $2.1 billion due to demand recovery in Asia and China.
  • Tuna: Forecast to reach over $900 million.
• Note: December exports might dip slightly due to seasonality and caution regarding new US regulations .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. PM Orders Report on National Gold Exchange by Dec 20 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued Telegram No. 241, requiring the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to urgently study and propose the establishment of a National Gold Exchange, reporting to the Standing Government before December 20.

• Policy: The SBV is also tasked with managing monetary policy flexibly, controlling credit flow into drivers of sustainable growth (green/digital transition, social housing), and ensuring macroeconomic stability .

2. Global Economy 2025-2026: “Calm Waves” International organizations forecast that the global economy has temporarily weathered the storm.

• IMF Forecast: Global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025 (raised from previous forecasts), as trade agreements helped avoid tariff shocks.
• 2026 Outlook: Optimistic due to positive trade relations, stimulus measures, and the AI investment boom .

3. Vietnam Economy 2025: Overcoming Difficulties At a meeting with the Policy Advisory Council on Dec 17, the Ministry of Finance reported:

• 2025 Estimates: GDP growth approx. 8%; GDP per capita ~$5,000 (entering high-middle income group). Inflation controlled under 4%. Budget revenue exceeded estimates by over 25%.
• 2026 Targets: GDP growth of 10% or more; GDP per capita $5,400–$5,500. Focus on completing institutions, strategic infrastructure, and new growth drivers .

C. ENERGY

1. Citizens to Choose Electricity Supplier; Prices Negotiated The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has drafted a decision on the competitive electricity market roadmap.

• Level 3 (Retail Competition): To operate from 2027. Customers can choose to buy electricity from retail units. Prices will be agreed upon between customers and retailers based on market mechanisms.
• Spot Market: Electricity buying/selling will occur via the spot market and bilateral contracts.
• Principles: Separation of monopoly functions (transmission/distribution) from competitive functions (generation/retail) to eliminate cross-subsidies .

2. New Rules for Rental/Mini-Apartment Electricity Fees Circular 60 (effective Dec 2) prohibits landlords from overcharging for electricity.

• Regulations: Each rental house signs one contract. For student/worker rentals (under 12 months), if tenants are undeclared, retail price level 2 applies. If declared, every 4 people count as 1 household quota.
• Enforcement: Landlords cannot collect more than the amount on the electricity bill. Violations (overcharging) face fines of 20-30 million VND .

3. Global Coal Demand Record in 2025 The IEA reports global coal demand may hit a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (+0.5%) before declining.

• Trends: China and India (growth drivers) are seeing demand plateau or drop due to renewables/hydro. However, US demand unexpectedly rose (~8%) in the short term due to policy support .

4. US Emerges as Global Oil & Gas Superpower Wood Mackenzie evaluates the US as a hydrocarbon superpower.

• LNG: US to become the largest LNG exporter; expected to hold 30% of global LNG supply by 2030.
• Oil: US leads global oil production (20% of global output). EIA forecasts crude output to average 13.61 million barrels/day in 2025 .

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

1. Online Exports: New Growth Pillar At the VOIEF 2025 Forum (Dec 18), MoIT highlighted Cross-border E-commerce.

• Stats: E-commerce grew >25% in 2025 (market size $31 billion).
• Exports: Export value via e-commerce estimated at nearly $2 billion in 2025 (+78%). The new E-commerce Law (passed Dec 10) creates a legal foundation for this pillar .

2. Philippines Rice Imports 2026 to Drop The Philippines Department of Agriculture forecasts rice imports in 2026 to drop below 4 million tons (3.6-3.8M tons) due to strong domestic production.

• Policy: Tariffs raised to 20%. The Philippines is encouraging importers to diversify sources (Cambodia, Myanmar) to reduce reliance on Vietnam .

3. Origin of Goods: Wider FTAs, Stricter Rules As Vietnam’s FTA network expands (EVFTA, UKVFTA, etc.), tariffs drop to 0%, making “Origin of Goods” the central competitive factor.

• Compliance: Strict adherence to origin rules is mandatory to enjoy benefits; it is no longer just a technical requirement but a measure of integration capacity .

4. Off-Season Durian Prices Plummet In the Mekong Delta, off-season durian prices dropped to 88,000–92,000 VND/kg (Type A).

• Cause: Scarcity of export-standard goods for China caused a backlog in the domestic market while local demand is weak. High production costs (50-60k VND/kg) pose loss risks for farmers .

5. Vietnam Exports Aim for New Record

• 2025 Forecast: Exports expected to exceed $470 billion (+16%); total trade ~$920 billion. Trade surplus maintained for 10 years.
• Strategy: Shift from width to depth, increasing domestic value-added and meeting green standards (ESG, emissions) which are now mandatory requirements .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Pilot Durian Traceability with Police Stamps From Jan 1, 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) will pilot durian traceability using electronic authentication stamps (QR/NFC) issued by the Ministry of Public Security to manage quality from farm to distribution .

2. Live Hog Prices Continue to Rise On Dec 18, hog prices rose nationwide, reaching 67,000 VND/kg in the North (highest) and remaining above 60,000 VND/kg in the South .

3. Retail Consumer Outlook 2026 According to MBS Securities, the retail sector will see opportunities in 2026 as tax policies support income.

• Trends: Manufacturing recovery will boost disposable income. Modern grocery chains (Winmart, Bach Hoa Xanh) and pharmacy chains (Long Chau, An Khang) are expected to grow.
• Jewelry: Demand expected to recover in mid-2026 as gold prices stabilize .

4. HCMC Prepares Goods for Tet Binh Ngo Businesses are racing to prepare for Tet (Feb 2026).

• Reserves: HCMC businesses prepared over 26,000 billion VND in goods.
• Stabilization: Price-stabilized goods account for 9,000 billion VND (up 10% y-o-y). Prices will be 5-15% lower than the market .

5. Leveraging Vietnam – EAEU FTA The FTA with the Eurasian Economic Union offers deep tariff cuts (90% lines). However, businesses must strictly comply with Rules of Origin to convert preferences into real benefits and maintain presence in Russia and Belarus.