Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 23, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. Official Launch of Product Traceability System Starting December 23, 2025, the Traceability System at www.verigoods.vn operated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) officially goes into operation.

• Purpose: To contribute to product information transparency, protect consumers, and support sustainable business development.
• Roadmap: The system is operational now and will become mandatory for certain risk-assessed product groups (affecting health, environment, safety) starting January 1, 2026 .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. UOB Forecasts 7% GDP Growth for Vietnam in Q1 2026 UOB Bank (Singapore) forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth in Q1 2026 could reach 7%.

• Context: Vietnam’s economic growth in Q3 2025 reached 8.23%, the highest since the post-COVID recovery, driven by strong manufacturing (up 10.8% in 9 months) and exports, despite challenges from US tariffs .

2. Vietnam – The “Rising Star” of Asia Professor Reena Marwah (Delhi University) assesses Vietnam as a bright spot for growth in Asia.

• Drivers: Exports to the US are growing (18-20%) as Vietnam moves up the value chain in electronics. Tourism and public investment are also key pillars .
• 2026-2030 Goal: The double-digit growth target is ambitious but grounded in political stability, consistent reform (“Doi Moi 2.0”), and strong FDI attraction due to supply chain shifts .

3. Expert Analysis: US Tariffs and Economic Impact While President Donald Trump promotes tariffs as a tool to reduce deficits, experts warn of complexities.

• US Economy: Signs of slowing down with 105,000 jobs lost in Oct 2025 and unemployment rising to 4.6%. Tariffs are pressuring consumer prices and may harm long-term job creation by reducing purchasing power .

C. ENERGY

1. EVN Concerns: Competitive Retail Market May Spike Electricity Prices Commenting on the draft decision on the competitive electricity market, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) expressed concerns about the transition to a competitive retail market (Level 3) by 2027.

• Risk: Shifting from average pricing to market pricing (covering full costs and profits) could cause electricity prices to rise, especially with a 10% GDP growth target pressuring supply.
• Impact: Remote and island areas might face very high prices or lack of investment due to high costs. EVN warns that without state regulation, market mechanisms could generate excessive profits for private firms while burdening consumers .

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

1. Fruit & Vegetable Exports Near $8.6 Billion In the first half of December 2025, fruit and vegetable exports reached nearly $400 million.

• Full Year: Estimated to reach $8.59 billion for the whole year (up 20%), with a trade surplus of over $5.5 billion .
• Markets: China remains the largest market ($5 billion, up 15%). Durian is the “star” product ($3.34 billion). Processed fruit and vegetables also surged by 37.5% .

2. Chinese Cars Flood Vietnam, Surpassing Thai Cars In November, 5,001 cars were imported from China ($157.3 million), surpassing Thailand for the first time.

• Trend: 2025 is a boom year for Chinese car brands (BYD, Geely, Lynk & Co) in Vietnam. Cumulative 11-month imports from China surged 56.1% in volume .

3. Fruit Exports to China: Targeting $8-10 Billion Exports to China reached a record $4.98 billion in 11 months.

• Potential: With advantages in logistics (road/rail/sea) and signed protocols, the industry aims for $8-10 billion in the coming years.
• Condition: Businesses must shift to official quota exports, strictly meeting requirements on traceability, packaging, and quality as the market becomes increasingly demanding .

4. Phone and Component Exports Drop Over 21% In November 2025, exports of phones and components dropped sharply by 21.5% to $3.99 billion.

• Overall: However, the 11-month total for phones still reached $52.66 billion (up 4.8%). Computer and electronic exports remain the main pillar, reaching nearly $97 billion (up 48.5%) .

5. Shrimp Exports Forecast to Hit Record $4.5 Billion Shrimp exports reached $4.3 billion in 11 months (up 21%).

• Markets: Exports to China/Hong Kong surged 59%; CPTPP markets rose 32%. Exports to the US slowed down due to anti-dumping duties but processed products remain a bright spot.
• Forecast: The sector expects to reach a record $4.5-4.6 billion in 2025 .

6. Fresh Jackfruit to China via Official Channels from June 2026 From June 1, 2026, Vietnamese fresh jackfruit will be officially exported to China under new GACC regulations.

• Requirements: Orchards and packing facilities must register codes, apply GAP/IPM, and ensure no pests (fruit flies, mealybugs). This opens huge opportunities for jackfruit alongside durian and bananas .

7. “New Highway” for Wood Exports: E-commerce The wood industry is shifting from traditional B2B to B2C via cross-border e-commerce to capture higher value.

• Success: Firms like Green Mekong are succeeding on Amazon with niche products (deck tiles) and sustainable “green wood” products favored by US Gen Z consumers .

8. Proactive Response to SPS Regulations SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) warnings from the EU dropped by 48% in 2025. However, experts warn that SPS is becoming a “trade passport” and a technical barrier. Vietnam needs to move from checking individual shipments to managing the entire chain to meet rising standards .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Boosting Purchasing Power for the Economy Year-end purchasing power is weaker than usual as consumers tighten spending.

• Solution: Experts suggest raising incomes (wage reform in 2026), reducing taxes/fees, and businesses adapting to e-commerce trends to stimulate demand .

2. Live Hog Prices Near 70,000 VND/kg Hog prices in the North have risen to 68,000-70,000 VND/kg due to supply shortages caused by African Swine Fever (ASF) and recent floods.

• Situation: Farmers are hesitant to restock due to high risks. Prices are expected to exceed 70,000 VND/kg after the New Year .

3. Ensuring Goods and Price Stabilization for Tet Binh Ngo 2026 localities have prepared goods reserves increasing by 10-20%.

• HCMC: Prepared 26,000 billion VND worth of goods (9,000 billion for stabilization).
• Hanoi: 19 enterprises participating in stabilization at 10,700 points.
• Directive: The Deputy PM ordered strict monitoring of essential goods prices to prevent shortages or price fevers during Tet .

F. TRADE REMEDIES

1. US Imposes 127% Anti-Dumping Duty on Algerian Steel The US DOC issued a preliminary decision imposing a 127% anti-dumping duty on steel rebar from Algeria, signaling a new trade front that could affect global steel flows .

2. China Imposes Temporary Tariffs on EU Dairy China announced temporary anti-subsidy tariffs of 21.9% – 42.7% on EU dairy products starting Dec 23, 2025. This is seen as a response to EU tariffs on Chinese EVs .

3. China Maintains Duties on EPDM Rubber China extended anti-dumping duties on EPDM rubber from the US (214%+), Korea, and EU for another year pending review. However, duties on UK rubber will expire on Dec 20, 2025 .