Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 26, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. MoIT Acts on ~500 Tea Containers Stuck in Pakistan Faced with nearly 500 containers of Vietnamese tea being stuck at Karachi port (Pakistan), causing heavy losses and affecting tea farmers, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has taken decisive action.

• Action: MoIT directed the Foreign Trade Agency and the Import-Export Department to coordinate with the Vietnam Trade Office in Pakistan to assess the situation.
• Measures: The Ministry instructed the Trade Office to work continuously with Pakistan’s port and customs authorities to request special handling measures. Additionally, MoIT coordinated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to send an official diplomatic note requesting favorable and flexible handling of the stuck shipments based on the friendly economic relations between the two countries .

2. Industrial Production Grows Spectacularly by 9.5% Closing 2025, industrial production achieved a spectacular growth of 9.5%, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Shift: This creates momentum for Vietnam to transform from a manufacturing workshop to deeply participating in the global supply chain.
• Context: This achievement was made despite global fluctuations, rising protectionism, and supply chain risks due to geopolitics and climate change. It marks a strong finish to the 2021-2025 Socio-Economic Development Plan .

3. Import-Export Hits Historic Peak of $920 Billion Despite global trade volatility, Vietnam’s trade remains a bright spot, setting a new historical peak of $920 billion, an increase of $133 billion compared to 2024 ($787 billion).

• Rank: Vietnam officially joins the group of 25 largest trading economies globally (21st in exports, 20th in imports) and ranks 2nd in ASEAN.
• Trade Surplus: The trade balance recorded a surplus for the 10th consecutive year, exceeding $20 billion for the third year in a row.
• Scale: Exports reached $470.59 billion (up 15.9%); Imports reached $449.41 billion (up 18%). The Export/GDP ratio rose to roughly 85% .

4. Fruit & Vegetable Exports Surge to $8.5 Billion Pushing deep processing and expanding GlobalGAP farming helped the fruit and vegetable sector accelerate.

• Turnover: 2025 export turnover is estimated at $8.5 billion, up 21% from 2024.
• China Market: After a slump in the first 5 months, exports to China recovered strongly from June due to the removal of technical barriers and new protocols (coconut, frozen durian), bringing in nearly $5 billion for the year .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. 2026 Forecast: “Year of Tariff Consequences” Global trade in 2025 remained resilient, with container volumes up 2.1% in October. However, significant shifts are occurring.

• Trend: Imports to the US fell by 8%, while volumes to Africa, the Middle East, and India surged.
• Warning: Experts predict that if 2025 was the “Year of Tariffs” (with US policies), 2026 will be the year the consequences of these tariffs reshape global supply chains .

2. Vietnam Exports 2025: Overcoming Tariff Headwinds In a year where tariffs returned as a hard policy tool, Vietnam’s exports faced the risk of high counter-tariffs from the US (initially proposed up to 46%).

• Result: After negotiations, the rate was adjusted to 19-20%, similar to other emerging economies. While exports survived the shock, this highlights the structural bottleneck of market dependence .

3. Unprecedented Russia-EU Trade Situation For the first time in history (since 2002), EU imports from Russia (22.2 billion Euro) exceeded Russia’s exports to the EU (21.7 billion Euro) in the first 9 months of 2025.

• Deficit: Russia recorded a trade deficit of 0.5 billion Euro with the EU. This anomaly reflects the impact of sanctions and shifting energy flows .

4. HCMC Responds to CNG Bus Supply Concerns Information about PV GAS D planning to stop supplying CNG from January 1, 2026, caused concern for public buses in HCMC.

• Update: On Dec 25, the HCMC Department of Industry and Trade confirmed the notification from the supplier and is working to address the potential disruption to hundreds of buses.

C. ENERGY

1. MoIT Works with Military Petroleum Corporation On Dec 26, Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan led a working group to inspect the Military Petroleum Corporation regarding fuel supply.

• Focus: Ensuring supply for the end of 2025 and Tet 2026; reviewing the minimum total supply for 2025 and allocation for 2026; and assessing the biofuel roadmap implementation .

2. Electricity Regulatory Authority: Preparing for 2026 The Electricity Regulatory Authority (Cục Điện lực) held a summary conference for 2025.

• Context: 2025 was the first year operating under a new merged organizational model. Despite heavy workloads, the agency fulfilled tasks to ensure national energy security.
• 2026: Focus remains on sustainable development and security .

3. Wide Open Door for Power Investment Power demand is forecast to rise sharply in 2026 as the economy accelerates (GDP target >10%).

• Demand: While 2025 demand grew modestly (4%) due to weather, MoIT builds scenarios for 2026 with demand growth of 8.5% to 11-12%. Analysts estimate a 1% GDP increase leads to a 1.3-1.5% rise in electricity demand .

4. Gas Market 2026: Supply Wave and Price Pressure 2026 will see a massive wave of new LNG supply (up 7%, ~40 billion m3), mainly from the US, Qatar, and Canada.

• Outlook: This may soften prices in Asia. However, weather remains a variable. Prices may adjust lower in H1 2026 before rising long-term .

5. Project Updates

• Hoa Binh Hydropower Extension: Units 1 & 2 generated power 40-45 days ahead of schedule, a major breakthrough .
• Formosa Ha Tinh: Produced over 3.5 billion kWh in 2025, coordinating with EVN to stabilize the Vung Ang Economic Zone grid .
• Hua Na Hydropower (HNA): Exceeded 2025 plans. Targets 896 billion VND revenue and 206 billion VND profit for 2026, with a 15% cash dividend .

D. INDUSTRY

1. Auto Giants Learn from China Western automakers (Ford, Volkswagen, Nissan) are abandoning the 4-5 year development cycle.

• Shift: To compete, they are adopting Chinese speed, shortening development times to under two years (e.g., VW reduced cycle by 30% for China EVs; Nissan N7 developed in ~2 years) without compromising safety .

2. Textile Industry: Deep in Global Supply Chain Despite supply chain disruptions and cost hikes, the textile industry met its 2025 targets through flexibility.

• Reach: Vietnamese textiles are now present in 138 countries/territories, minimizing risks through market diversification .

3. National Industrial Promotion Support In Gia Lai, the national industrial promotion program supported 4 businesses with 3.175 billion VND (1.2 billion support) to upgrade machinery for wicker production, boosting export quality .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

1. Increasing Fuel Supply for Tet, Rushing E10 Transition To meet year-end and Tet 2026 demand, fuel distributors are increasing reserves.

• E10 Roadmap: Companies are accelerating infrastructure investment to be ready for the switch to E10 biofuel starting in 2026.
• PVOIL: Committed to maintaining flexible reserves (domestic and imported) higher than average for Tet .

F. E-COMMERCE

1. E-commerce Training Not Meeting Demand A VECOM report surveyed 250 universities and found human resources for e-commerce are lacking.

• Issues: Unsustainable growth factors identified include environmental impact (packaging waste) and the development gap between major cities and provinces.
• New Law: The Law on E-commerce passed by the National Assembly in December 2025 directs development towards green growth and minimizing environmental impact