Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 29, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS & MACRO MANAGEMENT

1. Ensuring Supply of Gasoline and Essentials for Tet

• Directive: The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has mandated subordinate units to assess the impact of natural disasters and adjust growth scenarios to meet annual targets. A major focus is on accelerating public investment disbursement, aiming for 100% disbursement of the 2025 plan assigned by the Prime Minister .
• Market Stabilization: The Department of Domestic Market must monitor supply, demand, and prices to ensure stability for essential goods like gasoline and food .
• Export Push: The Agency of Foreign Trade is tasked with boosting exports during the year-end holidays (Christmas, New Year), while the Trade Promotion Agency prepares for the Spring Fair 2026 .
• Electricity Security: Absolute security of electricity supply is required for New Year and Lunar New Year; no shortages are allowed in any situation .

2. Electricity Supply Achievements

• 2025 Output: Electricity production and imports for the whole system are estimated at 322.8 billion kWh (+4.6% vs 2024).
• Rural Electrification: Completed power supply to 129 remote villages (“white zones” for signal and power) as requested by the Prime Minister.
• Challenges: Acting Minister Le Manh Hung noted that while total capacity is large, there is an imbalance between regions that requires calculation.

B. ENERGY SECTOR: INSPECTIONS & CHALLENGES

1. Violations at Thermal Power Projects

• Inspection Conclusion: The Government Inspectorate announced conclusions regarding the An Khanh – Bac Giang and Na Duong II Thermal Power projects.
• Handling: The Prime Minister is requested to direct the MoIT and leaders of Bac Ninh and Lang Son provinces to clarify responsibilities and handle violations. If criminal signs are found, files will be transferred to authorities .
• Policy Review: A review of the electricity generation price framework for small and specific power plants is required.

2. Natural Gas Market Development

• The Bottleneck: Experts argue the main issue is not a lack of sources but a lack of clear “rules of the game” regarding legal frameworks and pricing mechanisms .
• Issues: Gas prices are currently negotiated project-by-project without a domestic reference index. Infrastructure is fragmented, lacking regional connection .
• Recommendation: Separate the role of the State (policy/monitoring) from the market to attract long-term international investors .

3. Risk of CNG Bus Stoppage in HCMC

• Critical Situation: PV GAS D announced it would stop supplying natural gas for CNG production starting January 1, 2026, just 13 days before the contract expires, threatening the operation of 500 buses in Ho Chi Minh City.
• Competition Issue: The Southern Gas Trading JSC (KMN) has petitioned the National Competition Commission regarding signs of abuse of market dominance. Negotiations are set for the afternoon of December 29 .

C. IMPORT – EXPORT HIGHLIGHTS

1. 2026 Outlook: From Quantity to Quality

• Forecast: 2026 export prospects remain positive due to recovery in the US, EU, and Japan.
• Strategic Shift: The challenge is to increase value-added content. Vietnam needs to shift from “increasing turnover” to “increasing value,” reducing import dependence and boosting service exports to narrow the trade deficit .
• Target: Maintain double-digit export growth in 2026 by diversifying markets and promoting innovation.

2. Record Fruit & Vegetable Exports

• 2025 Performance: Export turnover hit a historic peak of $8.5 billion .
• Key Drivers: Durian plays a key role (especially in China), along with bananas, mangoes, jackfruit, coconuts, and pomelos .
• 2026 Pillars: Diversify markets, upgrade processing/logistics capacity, and control quality to avoid inspection congestion.

3. Toy Exports to the US

• Trend: A sudden surge in toy and sports equipment exports to the US in the second half of 2025 due to tariff policy changes on Chinese goods. This presents both an opportunity for market share and a challenge for supply capacity .

D. INDUSTRY & DIGITAL ECONOMY

1. Escaping the “Outsourcing Trap”

• Internal Strength: Domestic enterprises now contribute nearly 50% of industrial production value (up from 35% in 2020), showing reduced dependence on FDI .
• Caution: Experts warn that quality growth needs scrutiny, as many local firms still participate mainly in assembly and rely on imported components .

2. E-commerce Paradox

• Revenue vs. Sellers: While revenue on major platforms (Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, Tiki) reached nearly 306 billion VND (+34%) in the first 9 months, the number of sellers dropped by over 35,000 (a 6.25% decrease) .
• Cause: Small sellers are being “weeded out” due to rising platform fees, shipping costs, and competition from factory-direct warehouses.
• OCOP Products: E-commerce is a lever for OCOP products, but relies on solving logistics, scale, and quality bottlenecks. Experts suggest using professional sales agents rather than forcing every farmer to become a KOL .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET MANAGEMENT

1. Bio-fuel Mandate (E5, E10)

• Regulation: From June 2026, gas stations nationwide will only sell E5 and E10 bio-gasoline.
• Readiness: Major petroleum wholesalers have confirmed readiness regarding infrastructure, technology, and resources to implement this roadmap .

2. Tet Market Situation

• Gloomy Shopping: despite abundant goods and promotions, purchasing power is weak. Consumers are waiting for Tet bonuses as the Lunar New Year arrives late this year .
• Vietnamese Goods Dominance: Vietnamese products are the priority choice for Tet 2026 due to improved quality and design.

3. Anti-Counterfeit Measures

• New Tricks: Violations on e-commerce are increasing (livestreaming fake goods, using virtual accounts).
• Action: Hanoi authorities are tightening control over the digital environment and delivery services to handle violations strictly .

F. GREEN TRANSITION & TRADE DEFENSE

1. Environmental Industry

• Status: Vietnam has about 500 enterprises in this field, but only ~100 meet regional standards.
• Needs: A synchronized “push” in policy, market development, and financial resources is needed to make this a pillar of the green economy .

2. Trade Defense

• Statistics: The Ministry of Industry and Trade has initiated investigations into 61 trade defense cases against imported goods.
• Impact: These measures protect domestic production and millions of jobs from unfair competition (dumping, subsidies) .