Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for December 31. 2025

VIETNAM INDUSTRY & TRADE BULLETIN – NEWS REVIEW (DECEMBER 31, 2025)

A. MACROECONOMICS & POSITIVE HIGHLIGHTS

1. E-commerce Revenue Hits $32 Billion

• Booming Sector: According to the MoIT’s Domestic Market Department, 2025 marked a boom for e-commerce, reaching a scale of $32 billion, accounting for nearly 12% of total retail sales of goods and services nationwide .
• Growth: The sector grew by over 20% compared to 2024, the second highest in Southeast Asia, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and strong business investment in digital technology .

2. Vietnam in “B-Ready 2025” Top Performers

• World Bank Report: In the Business Ready 2025 report released on Dec 30, Vietnam is listed among the 21 economies with outstanding performance, ranking in the top 20% for two out of three pillars: Regulatory Framework and Operational Efficiency .
• Assessment: Vietnam is noted for having a business environment that outperforms its GDP per capita, indicating institutional reform efforts are ahead of economic development levels .

3. Foundation for Double-Digit Growth

• 2025 Macro Overview: GDP growth is estimated at 8%, budget revenue increased by nearly 33%, and major balances are guaranteed. The state waived/reduced nearly 242 trillion VND in taxes and fees to support recovery despite natural disasters .
• Business Vitality: A record 300,000 enterprises entered or re-entered the market. The goal for 2026 is to maintain decisive and flexible macro management to aim for double-digit growth .

4. Retail Market Reaches $269 Billion

• Scale: The domestic retail market reached approximately $269 billion in 2025, with total retail sales increasing by 9-10%, the highest in 5 years (excluding pandemic years) .
• Structure: Modern infrastructure (supermarkets, malls) is expanding but concentrated in cities (50%), while rural areas rely on traditional markets. Spending on services (travel, dining) is growing faster (12-14%) than goods .

B. ENERGY SECTOR

1. EVNNPT Investment Reaches 29,002 Billion VND

• Performance: In 2025, the National Power Transmission Corporation (EVNNPT) commenced 42 projects and energized 49 projects.
• Financing: EVNNPT secured capital effectively, signing credit contracts for ~50 projects totaling 25,000 billion VND, including AFD loans (67 million EUR) and agreeing on terms for a WB loan (REACH1) .
• Credit Rating: Fitch Ratings maintained EVNNPT’s credit rating at BB+ for the 7th consecutive year.

2. Electricity Consumption vs. GDP Paradox

• The Anomaly: While GDP growth is estimated at over 8%, commercial electricity output only increased by 4.9% (compared to the usual elasticity of 1.4-1.7 times GDP) .
• Reasons:
  • Weather: A mild year with more rain reduced air conditioning demand in residential areas and irrigation demand in agriculture .
  • Self-Consumption: Rooftop solar self-consumption in residential areas is estimated at 10 billion kWh (~4% of total output).
  • Efficiency: Industries are investing in energy-saving machinery and rooftop solar.

C. IMPORT – EXPORT & AGRICULTURE

1. Agro-Forestry-Fishery Record: $70.09 Billion

• Milestone: Exports hit a historic high of $70.09 billion (+12% vs 2024), exceeding the $65 billion target. Trade surplus reached $14.87 billion.
• Key Commodities: 10 items exceeded $1 billion. Three groups surpassed $8 billion: Wood products ($11.6B), Coffee ($8.6B, +52%), and Fruit & Vegetables ($8.6B, +20%) .
• Markets: US remains #1 (21.1% share), followed by China (17.6%) and Japan .

2. Cashew Industry Warning: “Outsourcing” for Africa?

• Record with Risks: Cashew exports exceeded $5 billion in 2025. However, VINACAS warns that Vietnam is becoming a “hired processor” for African countries .
• Shift: African nations are investing in processing machinery (handling 70% of the work) and exporting semi-processed kernels to Vietnam for the final difficult 30% (manual stages). Raw cashew imports skyrocketed to 150,000 tons .
• Proposal: Reconsider tax exemption for imported cashew kernels and establish technical barriers to protect domestic production .

3. Pangasius: Shifting from Volume to Value

• 2025 Results: Exports reached $2.1 billion (+5%). China surpassed the US to become the largest market (>22% share) .
• Strategy: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) warns that competing on low prices is no longer sustainable. The industry must shift mindset from “output” to “high value” and sustainability .

4. Forestry Sector

• Success: Export value reached $18.5 billion (+6.6%). Forest coverage remained stable at 42.03%.
• Forest Services: Revenue from forest environmental services reached nearly 4,000 billion VND .

5. Philippines Rice Tax & Vietnamese Rice

• Policy Change: The Philippines issued Circular 001-2025 using Vietnam’s 5% broken rice price (FOB) as a benchmark to adjust import tariffs quarterly .
• Impact: Vietnam can no longer rely on a “low price, high volume” strategy. It must stabilize FOB prices and focus on high-quality segments .

6. Norwegian Salmon Growth

• Fastest in SE Asia: Norwegian fresh salmon exports to Vietnam reached 7,500 tons (+42%), driven by young urban families prioritizing nutrition and food safety .

7. Global Auto: Chinese EVs Flooding Markets

• Global Context: Chinese EV exports rose 87% in November. Exports to Mexico jumped 2,367%.
• Oversupply: Domestic saturation is forcing Chinese firms to export or face elimination. Analysts predict only ~7 major Chinese automakers will survive the next decade .

D. DOMESTIC MARKET MANAGEMENT & POLICY

1. MoIT Directive for 2026

• Priorities: MoIT issued Document 10187/BCT-KHTC mandating tasks to achieve >8% growth in 2026.
  • Public Investment: Ensure 100% disbursement of 2025 capital.
  • Tet Supply: Stabilize markets for gasoline, food, and essentials; strictly combat smuggling and fake goods.
  • Electricity: No power shortages allowed, especially during New Year and Tet.
  • Trade: Exploit FTAs with potential markets (Middle East, South America) and accelerate new negotiations .

2. E-commerce Fraud & Control

• Situation: While growing fast, e-commerce faces rising fraud (fake goods, tax evasion). In Q3/2025 alone, over 31,000 violations were handled .
• Solutions: Experts support new regulations requiring identity verification of sellers. Platforms should use tech measures to auto-block infringing listings, especially for specific goods like multi-level marketing products (e.g., Amway) .

3. Alcohol Business Regulations

• VCCI Feedback: VCCI suggests reviewing draft amendments on alcohol business conditions. Requirements for “confirmation from two distributors” or separate “business location registration” are deemed unreasonable and administratively burdensome .

E. TRADE DEFENSE & CONSUMER RIGHTS

1. US Duties on Hard Empty Capsules

• Investigation Result: The US DOC issued a final conclusion on anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probes into Vietnamese hard empty capsules.
• Rates: Subsidy margin is 2.45%, but dumping margin is 46.24%. Final duty orders (if any) are expected in Feb 2026 .

2. Zalo User Data Investigation

• Action: The National Competition Commission invited VNG Corp to work on issues regarding user data collection.
• Concern: New terms forcing users to share sensitive data (ID cards, family relations) raise privacy concerns and potential violations of the 2025 Personal Data Protection Law .

3. Standards & Quality (Local Example)

• Thanh Hoa: The Department of Science and Technology is enhancing standards, metrology, and quality control to support businesses and protect consumers, processing 198 TBT warnings and ensuring no violations in recent inspections .