Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for August 03, 2023

A. POSITIVE ECONOMIC NEWS

1. Tra Fish (Pangasius) Market Expansion

• Broad Reach: In the first half of 2023, Vietnamese tra fish was exported to 165 markets, an increase of 39 markets compared to the same period in 2022.
• Market Performance: While total turnover fell 39% to $873 million, notable growth was seen in Saudi Arabia (+52%), Germany (+39%), and Singapore (+6%). China-Hong Kong, the US, and CPTPP remain the top three importers.

2. Integration and Trade Surplus

• FTA Networks: Vietnam has official relations with 189/193 countries and has signed 16 active FTAs covering nearly 90% of global GDP.
• Record Surplus: Effective FTA implementation helped Vietnam achieve a record trade surplus of $15.23 billion in the first seven months of 2023.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC NEWS

1. Inflation and Price Management

• CPI Factors: Key sectors impacting CPI include education, construction materials, tourism, and energy (electricity).
• Education Fees: To control inflation and maintain social consensus, authorities have proposed postponing tuition fee increases for the 2023-2024 academic year.
• Regional Inflation: Inflation in Laos remains high at 27.8% in July, though it has slightly decreased from June.

2. Sector-Specific Updates

• Sugar Industry: High global sugar prices due to supply shortages and biofuel demand are expected to bring positive profits for sugar enterprises in the second half of 2023.
• Steel Market: Despite a slight decrease in global exchange prices, domestic steel stocks continue to rise.

C. ENERGY SECTOR

1. Power Generation and Supply

• Coal Dominance: In the first seven months, coal-fired power accounted for nearly 50% of the total system output.
• Hydropower Struggles: Water levels in Northern reservoirs remain poor, reaching only 30-60% of the long-term average.
• August Outlook: EVN predicts no power shortages in August, with an average daily consumption of 825.8 million kWh.

2. Renewable Energy (RE) Progress

• Negotiations: 74 out of 85 transitional RE projects (totaling 3,999.86 MW) have submitted documents for price negotiations.
• Operational Status: To date, 17 projects (859.52 MW) have completed COD procedures and are generating commercial electricity for the grid.

3. Global Oil Market

• Price Peaks: Global oil prices reached 3-month highs in July, driven by OPEC+ supply tightening and rising demand. Analysts suggest prices could potentially return to $100/barrel as global inventories fall faster than expected.

D. IMPORT AND EXPORT NEWS

1. Agricultural and Seafood Highlights

• Rice Opportunities: Export bans from India, Russia, and the UAE offer a major chance for Vietnamese rice. Vietnam targets producing 43 million tons in 2023, enough to ensure food security and export 7.2 – 7.5 million tons.
• Fruits and Vegetables: This sector is a “shining star,” reaching record H1 exports of $2.8 billion (+64% YoY), with China accounting for 63.5% of the market share.
• Seafood Forecast: VASEP predicts total 2023 seafood exports could reach $9 billion in a favorable scenario, though the US and EU markets remain lower than in 2022.

2. Industrial and Medical Exports

• ICT Revenue: Total ICT industry revenue fell 7.1% in seven months ($72.9 billion) due to a sharp drop in hardware and electronics export demand.
• Vaccines: Vietnam is set to export 2 million doses of the African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccine to the Philippines and Indonesia by October.

E. TRADE DEFENSE AND INTEGRATION

• Plywood Win: Junma Phu Tho successfully passed the US Department of Commerce investigation, becoming one of 20 Vietnamese plywood companies exempt from anti-dumping and countervailing duties in the US market.
• VIFTA Agreement: The Vietnam-Israel FTA (VIFTA) is expected to significantly boost the export of Vietnamese tropical fruits and vegetables to the Middle East.
• EVFTA Anniversary: After three years of implementation, the EVFTA has been a major catalyst for diversifying markets and boosting high-quality agricultural exports to the EU.

F. COMPETITION AND CONSUMER PROTECTION

• Multi-level Marketing (MLM): Authorities identified 9 warning signs of illegal pyramid schemes, including requiring entry fees, recruitment-focused rewards, and a lack of official registration.
• Data Privacy: California (USA) is investigating automakers for collecting and potentially misusing personal data (location, web browsing, and camera footage) from modern connected vehicles.

Analogy: The current rice export situation is like a “golden harvest window”; with global competitors closing their gates (export bans), Vietnam is accelerating its pace to fill the void, provided it keeps enough “seed and grain” (food security) for its own people.