Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for February 03, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Spring Fair: Specialties from 3 Regions “Land” in the Capital for Peak Tet Shopping

• Event: The First Spring Fair 2026 is becoming a shopping destination for the Binh Ngo Lunar New Year, as specialties from all three regions have simultaneously arrived in the capital.
• Scale: Running for 12 days, it is a national-scale event featuring the participation of Central ministries and 34 provinces and cities.
• Goals: Despite short preparation time, localities aim to ensure quality goods for consumers, expand consumption channels, and connect domestic and export partners for enterprises. Hundreds of tons of agricultural products, food, and OCOP products are featured. It promises to be an effective bridge between production and consumption, stabilizing the Tet market.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Vietnam on the Verge of National Credit Rating Upgrade

• Current Status: Vietnam is currently only one notch away from an “Investment” grade rating, standing at the threshold of an upgrade after years of improving its macroeconomic foundation and institutions. S&P and Fitch currently rate Vietnam one notch below investment grade, while Moody’s rates it two notches below.
• Recent Momentum: Last week, Fitch Ratings upgraded Vietnam’s secured long-term debt to BBB-, marking the first time a sovereign-linked debt instrument reached Investment grade.
• Benefits: Reaching Investment grade will reduce borrowing costs, expand access to long-term funding for large-scale infrastructure projects, and support the stock market by attracting international institutional capital. Experts estimate this could reduce borrowing costs by up to 150 basis points.

Impressive Recovery of the European Economy

• Growth: The Eurozone economy closed 2025 with a 1.5% growth rate, surpassing forecasts from the European Commission (1.3%) and Bloomberg (1.4%). Q4 saw a 0.3% growth, the highest in over two years. Spain led with 0.8% growth in Q4.
• Drivers: The growth momentum primarily came from the service sector, offsetting the decline in manufacturing.

Hanoi Attracts $102 Million in FDI in January 2026

• FDI Attraction: In January 2026, Hanoi attracted 102 million USD in foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Business Registration: The city granted establishment certificates to 3,212 new businesses (up 72% year-on-year) with registered capital reaching 29.8 trillion VND (up 2.2 times).

C. ENERGY

Carefully Calculating Scenarios to Ensure Power Supply in All Situations

• MoIT Action: The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) met with energy groups and localities to implement Directive 01/CT-TTg on ensuring electricity supply during peak 2026 and the 2027-2030 period.
• Directive: Acting Minister Le Manh Hung requested EVN, energy groups, and NSMO to calculate and forecast risks for each operating scenario to adjust, control, and ensure no power shortages occur.

Proposal to Reduce Ethanol Import Tax to Lower E10 Gasoline Price

• Context: From June 1, 2026, all unleaded gasoline nationwide will be blended into E10, while E5 RON92 will be used until the end of 2030.
• Challenge: Currently, domestic refineries cannot supply standard input fuel for E10 blending, forcing Petrolimex to import 100% of high-quality fuel from Japan and Southeast Asia, leading to high prices.
• Proposal: Businesses propose that the MoIT and Ministry of Finance consider tax exemptions/reductions for imported ethanol to lower E10 prices and encourage consumer adoption.

MoIT Warns of Sluggish Diesel Sales

• Issue: The Domestic Markets Department noted instances of sluggish diesel sales, especially in the North. This risks affecting supply-demand balances and the lives of people during the peak Tet season.
• Action: The MoIT issued Directive 292/TTTN-XD on Feb 2, 2026, demanding key traders and distributors ensure stable supply before and after Tet. In all situations, businesses must absolutely not allow supply disruptions in the retail system.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Vietnamese Agricultural Products Shift from “Quantity” to “Quality”

• Successes: Early 2026 export data shows bright spots, notably the successful entry of fresh longan into strict markets like the US and Canada.
• Challenges: The agricultural sector faces policy unpredictability and capital issues, with some businesses seeing credit limits cut by 50% during harvest season. Strict international rules, like EU and UK regulations on animal welfare and deforestation, demand sustainable practices.

Taiwan Tightens Inspections on Vietnamese Durian

• Regulation: The Taiwan Food and Drug Administration (TFDA) announced strict pesticide residue inspections on every batch of Vietnamese durian until Feb 26, 2026. One exporting enterprise was suspended from import inspections for a month.

Meat Imports Near 1 Million Tons in 2025; Pork Averages 59,000 VND/kg

• Volume: In 2025, Vietnam imported 978.3 thousand tons of meat (~$2 billion), up 11.6% in volume year-on-year. India remains the largest supplier.
• Pork Prices: Imported chilled/frozen pork reached 183.4 thousand tons at an average price of $2,273/ton (~59,000 VND/kg), significantly lower than domestic meat. To compete, domestic supermarkets are selling non-profit domestic pork for Tet.

Seafood Exports Face Early-Year Difficulties

• Growth: January 2026 seafood exports reached ~$874 million (+13% YoY), driven by strong demand from China, Japan, and ASEAN.
• US Market Drop: Exports to the US fell 9.9% in January, with tuna dropping 14%. This is attributed to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) and bottlenecks in issuing COA certificates under Circular 74/2025.

Decree 46 Congestion at Borders Basically Resolved

• Issue: Late Jan 2026 saw ~300,000 tons of agricultural products stuck at borders due to the sudden implementation of Decree 46 (shifting from self-declaration to state registration for imported food).
• Resolution: Authorities intervened, resolving backlogs at key borders like Kim Thanh and Hoa Lu by Jan 31. Ministries have proposed a 60-day delay for the Decree’s application to allow businesses to adapt.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

E-commerce Retail Estimated at $31 Billion in 2025

• Scale: E-commerce in Vietnam maintains a 25% annual growth rate. In 2025, retail scale is estimated at $31 billion, accounting for ~11% of total retail sales, with 60% of the population shopping online.

Spring Fair Promotes Vietnamese Goods

• Impact: By connecting manufacturers directly with consumers, intermediate costs are cut, creating room to reduce prices and enhance competitiveness. Brands like MISS EDE coffee and Quy Hoa tea are actively leveraging the event for direct consumer feedback and brand expansion.

F. TRADE REMEDIES

Anti-Dumping Tax on Colorless Float Glass

• Decision: The MoIT applied a temporary anti-dumping tax (ranging from 15.17% to 63.39%) on investigated imports from Indonesia and Malaysia. Imports had surged by 61.82% after the investigation was initiated.

Proactive Trade Remedies Using Data

• Trend: In 2025, Vietnam faced 21 new trade remedy cases from 11 markets. Moving into 2026, the strategy aims to shift from “defense” to proactive forecasting and prevention based on data.