Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 05, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Vibrant Import-Export Activities in Early 2026

• On the very first day of 2026, the flow of goods through northern border gates created a vibrant trading picture, signaling a hopeful new year for Vietnam’s import-export activities.
• At border gates such as Mong Cai (Quang Ninh), Tan Thanh (Lang Son), and Huu Nghi (Lao Cai), long convoys of vehicles processed customs clearance, reflecting a bustling trading tempo and determination to maintain growth momentum from the early days of the year.
• Despite IMF and World Bank forecasts of global economic slowdown due to monetary tightening and geopolitical conflicts, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has set a target for export turnover in 2026 to increase by over 8% compared to 2025, with a trade surplus of approximately 25 billion USD.
• To realize this expectation, MoIT emphasizes restructuring the industry towards increasing value, reducing reliance on raw material exports, and promoting industries with advanced technology.

Spring Fair 2026: Businesses Expect Order Boom

• Following the success of the Autumn Fair 2025, businesses are accelerating preparations for the Spring Fair 2026, expecting high consumer demand during the Lunar New Year.
• The fair is scheduled to take place from February 4-8, 2026, at the Vietnam Exhibition Center (Hanoi), covering over 100,000 m² with approximately 3,000 booths.
• A key highlight is the International Exhibition on Textile, Footwear, Furniture, and Handicraft Value Chains (VIVC 2026) hosted by MoIT, featuring 600-700 standard booths.
• This B2B forum aims to connect manufacturers with global buyers, promoting a complete value chain from design and raw materials to consumption.

Seafood Exports Exceed 11 Billion USD

• According to VASEP, seafood export turnover in 2025 increased by 13% compared to 2024. Shrimp products accounted for the largest proportion, bringing in 4.65 billion USD (up 20%), while lobster exports more than doubled to 817 million USD.
• Forecasting 2026, VASEP warns of potential instability due to US tariff policies and technical barriers, which may pressure exporters to shift markets, increasing competition in the EU, China, and ASEAN.
• Removing the IUU “yellow card” remains a crucial bottleneck to be resolved to expand the EU market door and enhance the reputation of Vietnamese seafood.

Vietnam Textile and Garment Marks Success in Canada

• The Canadian market remains a bright spot for Vietnamese textiles, estimated to grow by about 10% in 2025, reaching over 1.3 billion USD.
• Vietnam’s advantage lies in the CPTPP agreement, high product quality, and Canada’s desire to diversify supply sources.
• Vietnam is evaluated as capable of supplying high-standard products meeting strict technical requirements. Many Canadian investors are establishing factories in Vietnam to export back to North America and distribute to the Asia-Pacific region.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Vietnam Economy 2026: High Growth and the Test of Foundation and Execution

• Closing 2025 with relative stability, the core challenge for 2026 lies not in growth numbers but in the foundation creating growth and policy execution capacity.
• Sustainable growth cannot rely on short-term efforts; the real test is solidifying growth foundations and transforming institutional reform into specific actions.
• If institutions become a competitive advantage and public investment is effective, high targets are grounded; otherwise, slow reform may hinder long-term sustainability.

Creating New Drivers – Foundation for Double-Digit Growth

• With traditional drivers (exports, FDI) facing risks like trade defense lawsuits and weak technology transfer, Vietnam needs a new growth model to achieve double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period.
• The State should play a constructive role through legal frameworks and infrastructure; the private sector should drive innovation; and FDI should be selective, associated with new technology and ESG standards.
• Experts emphasize strategic breakthroughs in institutions, human resources, and infrastructure under the principle of “open institutions, smooth infrastructure, high-quality human resources, and smart governance”.

Improving Productivity: Vital Requirement in New Context

• Applying advanced improvement tools (Lean, Kaizen, 5S, Six Sigma) is a key solution for businesses to optimize processes and reduce costs.
• Pioneering units report positive results: Lean eliminates waste, Kaizen promotes continuous improvement, and 5S creates a safe working environment.

Increasing Competitiveness for Supporting Industry Enterprises

• Hanoi targets 11% GRDP growth in 2026 (industry 9.5%) but faces bottlenecks in capital, mechanisms, and procedures.
• Supporting industry orders often have an 18-24 month investment cycle, while credit is typically short-term (3-6 months).
• Logistics infrastructure is not synchronized, and clean land funds for industry are scarce. Hanoi has approved a Supporting Industry Development Program for 2026-2030 to form a production network connecting with multinational corporations.

Boom in New Business Establishment in Last Month of 2025

• 2025 saw 195,147 newly established enterprises (up 24.11%). Notably, December 2025 saw a boom of 71.61% compared to the same period, reaching 17,154 enterprises.
• Enterprises returning to operation also increased by 34.32%. However, withdrawals from the market increased by 14.81%, and dissolutions rose by 66.06%, mainly among small businesses under 5 years old.

Electric Vehicles Dominate Market Share in Europe

• EV sales in the UK, Germany, and Sweden hit new milestones in 2025. In the UK, EVs occupied 38.4% of the auto market share in November 2025.
• Meanwhile, the EU is considering delaying the ban on internal combustion engine sales to 2040 (instead of 2035) and adjusting the zero-emission target to a 90% CO2 reduction, allowing some “room” for internal combustion engines using low-carbon fuels.

C. ENERGY

Oil Prices Drop After US Action in Venezuela

• Oil prices fell on January 5, nearly two days after the US launched a military campaign regarding Venezuela. Brent crude dropped to 60.62 USD/barrel.
• Analysts suggest that increasing production from Venezuela will require massive investment due to degraded infrastructure and will not be easy or quick.
• Regarding Vietnam, this event increases price volatility risks. Domestic petrol prices are expected to decrease slightly (50-100 VND/liter) in the adjustment this Thursday (Jan 8) if no new fluctuations occur.

Energy is the Key to Vietnam’s Growth

• Expert Eric Van Vaerenbergh (ECAM, Belgium) asserts that Vietnam’s goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045 is ambitious but fitting.
• To maintain double-digit growth, Vietnam needs fast and effective public investment in infrastructure, especially energy, seaports, and railways.
• Productivity must become the “central engine” of growth.

Proposing Reactor Technology for Vietnam’s Nuclear Power Plant

• With the amended Law on Atomic Energy effective from Jan 1, 2026, nuclear energy becomes a pillar for energy security and Net Zero goals.
• Professor Bob Baulch (RMIT) suggests Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are suitable for Vietnam due to shorter construction times, lower initial capital, and scalability, allowing technology “leapfrogging”.
• The amended law establishes a clear roadmap and requires strict supervision by the national radiation and nuclear safety agency.

Amending Petroleum Law: Expanding Mindset for Offshore Energy Chain

• Experts suggest the Petroleum Law revision should move beyond pure oil and gas exploitation to manage the offshore energy value chain, including offshore wind power.
• Managing offshore wind power should be approached as an energy chain associated with oil and gas management experience (surveying, security, sovereignty) rather than just grid connection.
• Proposals include adjusting the law’s name or scope to reflect offshore energy development reality without losing specific management of resources and sovereignty.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Transparency of Goods Origin Increases Competitiveness

• Global trade increasingly prioritizes transparency in origin. Compliance helps exporters access markets and avoid trade defense measures.
• The Import-Import Department notes that businesses must store full and accurate origin records, including self-certified documents, to prove origin when verified by foreign customs.

Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Exports: From 2025 Acceleration to 10 Billion USD Ambition

• 2025 fruit and vegetable exports are estimated at 8 – 8.4 billion USD, up 18%.
• To reach 10 billion USD, the industry needs long-term solutions: reorganizing production into concentrated raw material areas, standardizing codes, reducing logistics costs (especially cold chain), and diversifying markets to reduce dependence on China.

Rice Exports 2025 Drop Sharp, Prospects for Transformation in 2026

• 2025 rice exports reached 7.85 million tons (4.02 billion USD), down 12.7% in volume and 29.4% in value.
• 2026 is forecast to be difficult as competitors like India maintain large supplies and markets like Indonesia reduce purchases. Vietnam must shift from quantity to quality and value competition.

“Durian War”: Vietnam Approaching 50% Market Share in China

• In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam’s durian exports to China reached 3.2 billion USD (up 22.8%), raising its market share to 49.3%, nearly overtaking Thailand (50.39%).
• Competition is intensifying as Malaysia and Laos have also been approved to export fresh durian to China.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

Domestic Market 2025 Breaks Through, Reaching 269 Billion USD

• The domestic market in 2025 reached a scale of 269 billion USD, with total retail sales increasing by 9-10%.
• Domestic purchasing power has affirmed its role as a solid foundation for the economy.
• MoIT forecasts the retail market will reach 450 billion USD by 2030, with e-commerce revenue reaching 50 billion USD.

Tet Goods Promotions: Early Discounts up to 50%

• In HCMC, Tet goods are flooding supermarkets like Lotte Mart and Emart. Many confectionery and beverage products (Kinh Do, Pepsi, Coca-Cola) are discounted.
• Bach Hoa Xanh and Bibica are applying discounts of up to 50% on many items to stimulate demand for the Lunar New Year.

F. E-COMMERCE

Retail E-commerce Scale Estimated at 31 Billion USD

• In 2025, the retail e-commerce market size is estimated at 31 billion USD, up 25.5% compared to 2024, accounting for about 11% of total retail sales.
• This places Vietnam in the top 10 countries with the fastest e-commerce growth globally.

G. TRADE DEFENSE

11 Markets Initiate 21 Trade Defense Cases Against Vietnamese Goods

• In 2025, Vietnamese exports faced 21 new trade defense cases from 11 markets.
• The US initiated the most cases (7 cases, 33%). Steel products were the most targeted (9 cases, 43%).
• MoIT is monitoring 27 product groups at risk of investigation to help businesses respond proactively.

H. GREEN GROWTH

Carbon Market: From Policy to Action

• Forestry is currently the only sector with negative emissions in Vietnam. A transparent carbon market is needed to mobilize social resources for green transition.
• Challenges include high technology costs for CO2 capture and project management on a large scale.

Sustainable Direction in Circular Economy for Thermal Power Plants

• More than 25 million tons of ash and slag from thermal power plants are generated annually. Thanks to policies, these are gradually being recycled into valuable construction materials.
• MoIT continues to perfect policies to support the consumption of recycled products from ash and slag, turning them into “secondary resources”.