Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 06, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Import-Export 2025 Hits Record of Over 930 Billion USD

• Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in 2025 reached a record level of over 930 billion USD, an increase of more than 18.2% compared to the previous year.
• Notably, total turnover in December reached nearly 90 billion USD, up more than 15% month-on-month and nearly 26% year-on-year. The trade balance for the whole year recorded a surplus of over 20 billion USD.
• The main growth driver remains the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sector, which recorded export turnover (including crude oil) of over 367 billion USD, up 26% and accounting for 77% of total national exports.
• Regarding commodity structure, the processing and manufacturing group continued to dominate with a turnover of over 421 billion USD, accounting for nearly 89% of total export value. Vietnam currently has 36 items with export turnover exceeding 1 billion USD, of which 8 key items have surpassed the 10 billion USD threshold.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Announcement of 12 New Laws: Perfecting the Financial-Economic Legal Framework

• On the morning of January 6, 2026, the Office of the President announced 12 laws passed by the 15th National Assembly, including 1 law drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (Law on E-commerce) and 11 laws by the Ministry of Finance.
• The Law on E-commerce (effective from July 1, 2026) supplements regulations on livestream sales and affiliate marketing, strengthens management of cross-border e-commerce, and requires foreign platforms to have a legal presence or guarantee obligations in Vietnam.

Prime Minister Requests Report on AI Impact on Industries

• Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed ministries to assess the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on industries to build retraining and skill conversion plans for workers.
• While digital infrastructure has made breakthroughs (5G covers nearly 59% of the population), limitations remain in digital human resources, R&D capacity, and information security.
• The PM emphasized promoting “dual transition” (digital and green transition) and creating “Digital Industrial Complexes”.

Top Growing Localities in 2025 Revealed

• Quang Ninh led the country in GRDP growth in 2025 with 11.89%, followed by Hai Phong with 11.81%.
• High growth in these localities is linked to the operation of large industrial complexes and FDI projects (e.g., Thanh Cong Viet Hung automobile complex in Quang Ninh, VinFast and LG in Hai Phong).
• Five localities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Dong Nai, Bac Ninh) continue to be economic pillars, contributing 55.4% to national growth.

Over 684.8 Trillion VND Invested in HCMC in 2025

• Total social investment capital in HCMC in 2025 is estimated at over 684.8 trillion VND, up 11.9%.
• Public investment increased sharply by 39.4% (130,829 billion VND), focusing on key infrastructure projects like Metro Line 2 and Ring Roads. Non-state investment accounted for more than half of the total capital.

Chinese Media: Vietnam’s Economic Growth Exceeds Market Expectations

• Chinese financial news outlets “Wallstreet CN” and “Jiemian” highlighted that Vietnam’s Q4/2025 GDP growth of 8.46% exceeded all forecasts.
• The articles noted that manufacturing increased by over 10% in Q4, becoming the core growth driver, and Vietnam welcomed a record 21.2 million foreign tourists in 2025.

GDP Growth 2025 Reached 8.02%

• GDP in 2025 grew by 8.02%, with the industry, construction, and service sectors contributing nearly 95%.
• Manufacturing increased by nearly 10%, the highest since 2019. GDP per capita is estimated at 5,026 USD.

Nearly 300,000 Enterprises Enter and Re-enter Market in 2025

• In 2025, nearly 300,000 enterprises were newly established or returned to operation, an increase of over 27%.
• Business confidence improved in Q4/2025, with 75.8% of enterprises rating their performance as better or stable.

EVN Twice Increases Electricity Prices, High Housing Costs Push CPI Up

• CPI in 2025 increased by 3.31%.
• Major drivers included housing and construction materials (+6.08%) and residential electricity prices (+7.2%) due to two adjustments by EVN in October 2024 and May 2025.

C. ENERGY

Statistics Agency Explains Low Electricity Consumption

• GDP grew by 8.02% in 2025, but commercial electricity output only increased by 4.9%.
• Reasons for this “gap”:
  • Infrastructure investment (public investment) consumes less power compared to industrial production.
  • Weather conditions (fewer heatwaves, typhoons in Central/North regions) reduced demand.
  • Rapid growth of self-consumption rooftop solar (estimated 10 billion kWh, nearly 4% of total output) reduced pressure on the grid.

Electricity – Foundation for Double-Digit GDP Growth

• Expert Ngo Tri Long argues that to support double-digit GDP growth from 2026, the power sector needs a “one-stop shop” mechanism for procedures to reduce investment delays.
• Solutions include prioritizing fast-deploying sources (wind/solar) combined with baseload power (LNG, hydro), standardizing Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), and expanding Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPA) for FDI firms.

Petrovietnam Unlocks New Drivers, Determined to Win 2026 Plan

• Petrovietnam aims for growth targets of over 10% in 2026.
• The Group focuses on “dual transition” (green and digital), perfecting institutions, and investing in key projects to create new production capacity.

Oil and Gas Industry Outlook 2026

• Oil and gas stocks have shown positive signs since mid-December 2025, partly due to expectations of oil prices following tensions in Venezuela.
• Analysts forecast oil prices in 2026 to fluctuate between 55-65 USD/barrel.
• Domestic upstream activities (Block B, Ca Voi Xanh projects) will benefit companies like PVS and PVD, while LNG demand will drive midstream growth.

Hanoi Targets 5% Reduction in Fuel Consumption in Transport by 2030

• Hanoi issued a plan for energy efficiency (2026-2030), aiming to save 8-10% of total energy consumption and reduce fuel consumption in transport by 5%.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

China Spends 7.2 Billion USD on Durian, Vietnam’s Share to Surpass Thailand

• In 11 months of 2025, China imported 7.18 billion USD of fresh durian.
• Vietnam’s export value to China reached 3.24 billion USD (+13.1%), with market share rising to 49.33%, approaching Thailand’s 50.39%. Vietnam’s off-season harvest advantage in December may help it surpass Thailand in 2025.

Cross-Border E-commerce Expected to “Take Off”

• Vietnam’s e-commerce market reached 32 billion USD in 2025.
• Cross-border exports via e-commerce are estimated at 2 billion USD in 2025 (+18%) and are expected to “take off” in 2026, becoming a key channel for SMEs to reach global markets directly (D2C).
• Logistics, especially air freight, is a key enabler.

Korean Exports Shift Strongly to Vietnam and ASEAN

• Due to US containment policies against China, South Korean exports to China fell by ~20% over 5 years, while exports to Vietnam increased by 10.8%.
• Korean companies are shifting production to Vietnam/ASEAN to bypass US trade barriers on China.

France to Suspend Imports Containing Banned Substance Residues

• France announced it will suspend imports of food containing residues of EU-banned substances (like mancozeb) starting January 7, pending EC approval. This affects various fruits from South America and other regions.

Digital Transformation Enhances Competitiveness for Pangasius Industry

• Pangasius exports exceeded 2 billion USD in 2025.
• A shortage of global whitefish supply in 2026 presents an opportunity for Vietnamese pangasius.
• Digital transformation (traceability, data-driven farming) is essential to meet sustainability requirements and maintain competitiveness.

“Opening the Way” for Logistics and Import-Export via Nghi Son Port

• Thanh Hoa province is incentivizing container transport via Nghi Son Port with subsidies of 500 million VND/international trip.
• The port handles ~50 million tons/year but container volume remains modest due to infrastructure limitations and competition from Hai Phong.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

Garment Enterprises Seek Orders for Q2/2026

• Garment firms like May 10 have full orders through February 2026, but Q2 is uncertain.
• Lead times are shortening, and buyers are demanding price cuts (~5%) despite rising costs.
• Digital management and shifting to high-value fiber products are key survival strategies.

Connecting OCOP Products to Consumers

• Hanoi has over 3,400 OCOP products but many struggle with branding and market access.
• Fairs and regional linkages are being organized to promote consumption.

Cho Con Traders Close Thousand Orders Thanks to Digital Transformation

• Traders at Da Nang’s Cho Con market are using TikTok and livestreams to sell thousands of orders, revitalizing business amid a decline in traditional market footfall.

Hanoi to Organize Spring Fair 2026 in 30 Communes/Wards

• Hanoi will hold the First Spring Fair 2026 across 30 locations to serve Tet shopping needs, ensuring food safety and transparency.

Total Retail Sales 2025 Hit Over 7 Quadrillion VND

• Total retail sales and consumer service revenue in 2025 reached estimated 7,008.9 trillion VND, up 9.2%.
• Tourism revenue surged by 20.2%, with international arrivals reaching a record 21.2 million.

F. TRADE DEFENSE

11 Markets Initiate 21 Trade Defense Cases Against Vietnamese Goods

• In 2025, Vietnam faced 21 new trade defense cases from 11 markets, with the US initiating the most (7 cases).
• The steel industry is most affected. Cumulative cases have reached 298.

Shrimp Enterprises Proactively Hold US Market

• Shrimp exports to the US grew 7% in 11 months of 2025 ($754 million).
• The biggest risk in 2026 is the POR19 review with a preliminary tax rate of 35.29%. Firms are urged to be transparent with data to maintain market share.