Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 07, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Digital Economy Estimated at 72.1 Billion USD

• In 2025, the digital economy continued to make significant contributions to Vietnam’s economic growth, with the value-added proportion estimated at 14.02% of GDP, equivalent to approximately 72.1 billion USD.
• This figure is 1.64 times higher than in 2020 and 1.5 times higher than in 2021.
• The average growth rate of the digital economy’s value added in the 2021-2025 period reached 12.1%, with 2025 seeing the highest growth at 18.4%.
• Notably, IT application services in production and management are trending upwards. Four provinces/cities have a digital economy contribution to GRDP exceeding 20%: Bac Ninh (46.30%), Thai Nguyen (29.53%), Hai Phong (22.28%), and Phu Tho (22.71%). Hanoi reached 17.34% and Ho Chi Minh City reached 13.43%.

Agriculture Targets 74 Billion USD Export in 2026

• Overcoming challenges in 2025 with an export value of 70.9 billion USD, the agricultural sector sets an optimistic target of 74 billion USD for 2026.
• Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien stated that despite predicted difficulties in 2026, Vietnam has experience in restructuring and pivoting markets (e.g., EU market increased by 35%, potential in Halal markets).
• The sector aims to enhance resource management and climate change resilience to ensure sustainable development.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

PM Requests Pilot Licensing for Crypto Asset Market Before Jan 15

• At the Financial Sector Conference on Jan 6, the Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance to license businesses participating in the crypto asset market pilot (Sandbox) before January 15.
• The pilot duration is 5 years. To be licensed, businesses must meet 7 conditions, including being a Vietnamese enterprise, minimum charter capital of 10,000 billion VND, and ensuring IT system safety level 4.
• The Ministry expects to license a maximum of 5 enterprises for the pilot.

HCMC GRDP 2025 Grows Over 8%, Aiming for Double Digits in 2026

• Ho Chi Minh City closed 2025 with GRDP growth estimated at 8.03%.
• Total retail sales of goods and consumer services reached over 2,149 trillion VND (+13.5%). Exports estimated at 95.8 billion USD (+7%).
• For 2026, the City aims for GRDP growth of over 10%, maintaining its role as the economic locomotive of the Southeast region.

Household Businesses Struggle with Input Invoices

• Hundreds of small traders at Ninh Hiep market (Hanoi) expressed concerns about switching from flat tax to the declaration method.
• The biggest hurdle is valid input invoices, as goods have been imported via unofficial cross-border trade for decades. Official import costs are high (20% import tax, 8% VAT, logistics), and procedures are complex for small-scale seasonal fashion businesses.
• Experts suggest a comprehensive solution involving government coordination to help household businesses access legal goods sources.

C. ENERGY

Solar Manufacturers in Recession: Resilience of Top Players

• Wood Mackenzie’s survey shows that while top 10 solar module manufacturers reported a cumulative net loss of 2.2 billion USD in H1 2025 due to price drops, all non-Chinese companies in the top 10 remained profitable.
• The industry is forecast to undergo strong restructuring in 2026-2027, with weaker suppliers facing closure or mergers.

Ready to Operate Power System in New Period

• At the NSMO (National Power System and Market Operation Company) conference on Jan 6, Deputy Minister Nguyen Hoang Long emphasized the task of ensuring national energy security under Resolution 70 and Resolution 253.
• NSMO is required to modernize, develop high-quality human resources, and research new operating models to integrate new energy sources.

Venezuelan Oil Potential Impact

• The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US forces on Jan 3 has drawn attention to the country’s oil potential.
• Analysts suggest that if restrictions are lifted, Venezuelan heavy crude could flow to US refineries (Gulf Coast), potentially lowering gasoline prices due to increased supply.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Pangasius Opportunity Amidst Global Whitefish Shortage

• Global whitefish supply from natural catch is forecast to decrease by 145,000 tons in 2026, creating an opportunity for Vietnamese pangasius.
• 2025 pangasius exports estimated at 2.2 billion USD. However, challenges remain in the US market (taxes) and China (negative media).
• VASEP recommends businesses focus on sustainability and traceability to meet EU and US requirements.

Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery Export Goal 2026: Over 73 Billion USD

• The sector targets total exports of 73-74 billion USD in 2026 (Agriculture ~$40B, Seafood ~$12B, Forestry ~$18.8B).
• Strategy: Standardize raw material areas, expand codes, deep processing, and reduce logistics costs.

Pressure on Origin Traceability for Exports

• From Jan 10, 2026, the EU’s CATCH electronic certification system becomes mandatory for seafood imports, requiring data from fishing vessels to processing.
• From Jan 1, 2026, the US bans seafood exports from fisheries not equivalent to MMPA standards.
• The textile and wood industries also face strict traceability pressure (EUDR for wood). Businesses must invest in data infrastructure to avoid losing markets.

Shrimp to EU: Growth but New Animal Welfare Challenges

• Shrimp exports to the EU grew positively in 2025 ($562 million by mid-Dec).
• However, from 2026, major EU/UK retailers (Tesco, M&S) require shrimp to be electrically stunned before ice immersion. This requires investment in new technology, favoring competitors like Ecuador who have higher certification rates.

Thai Proposal: Durian via Laos-China High-Speed Railway

• Thailand encourages exporters to use the Laos-China railway to ship durian to Kunming in 2 days.
• Thailand faces fierce competition from Vietnam and must enhance quality control against contaminants (cadmium, Golden O).

VIFTA Agreement Boosts Exports to Israel

• 2025 two-way trade reached 3.7 billion USD; Vietnam’s exports reached nearly 900 million USD (+10%).
• The VIFTA agreement (effective Nov 2024) and the new Tel Aviv-Hanoi direct flight (Jan 5, 2026) are creating momentum for 2026.

Cambodia Rice Exports 2025

• Cambodia exported 940,321 tons of rice in 2025 (+45%), earning 602 million USD.

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports

• In 11 months of 2025, Indonesia’s palm oil exports reached 21.63 billion USD (+19.15%).

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

Spent 1.95 Billion USD Importing Meat, Pork Prices Rise Near Tet

• Vietnam spent 1.95 billion USD importing meat in 2025 (+11.6%). India is the largest supplier.
• Despite imports, domestic live hog prices rose to 68,000-71,000 VND/kg in late Dec/early Jan due to ASF supply impact.
• MoIT and MARD ensure sufficient food supply for Tet 2026.

Boosting Domestic Market: Scale Reaches 269 Billion USD

• Retail market scale estimated at 269 billion USD in 2025.
• Trends: Aging population (14.2% over 60) and rising middle class driving demand for health and high-quality products. Rural market offers potential for modern retail.