Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 14, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Vietnam Joins “8% Club”, Rising as Asian Growth Champion

Despite global trade tensions and tariff shocks, Vietnam’s economy recorded an impressive breakthrough in 2025.

• GDP Growth: According to the “Vietnam at a glance” report by HSBC (Jan 13), Vietnam’s GDP in 2025 increased by over 8%, making it the fastest-growing economy in Asia. General Statistics Office data confirms GDP growth at 8.02%, the second highest in 15 years.+1
• Trade Record: Total import-export turnover reached a record 928 billion USD, up 18% compared to the previous year.
• Resilience: Even as the “frontloading” effect to the US market fades, Vietnam’s exports still grew by about 30% year-on-year (3-month moving average), outperforming many other nations.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

International Media: Vietnam Entering a New Development Phase

• Stock Market: The Vietnamese stock market rose by approximately 37% in USD terms in 2025, reflecting foreign investor confidence.
• Market Upgrade: FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam to a secondary emerging market in October 2025, forecasting new capital inflows.
• FDI Surge:
  • Registered Capital: Total registered foreign investment reached 38.42 billion USD in 2025, up 0.5% compared to 2024.+2
  • Realized Capital: Estimated at 27.62 billion USD, an increase of 9%, the highest in 5 years, showing strong resilience in the manufacturing-export sector.+1

Global Economic Forecasts

• World Bank (WB): Raised the 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.6% (up 0.2 percentage points from June forecast) but warned of a slowdown in global trade growth in 2026 as inventory stockpiling ends and tariffs take effect.+1
• Federal Reserve (Fed): Expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January as inflation remains high. US CPI in December increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.+1

C. ENERGY

Positive Policy Adjustments for Oil & Gas Sector

• Stock Market Boom: Oil and gas stocks (GAS, PLX, BSR, PVD, etc.) surged, hitting ceiling prices due to support from Resolution 79 on state economic development.
• Resolution 79: Directs SOEs (EVN, PVN) to invest in key energy projects (nuclear power, offshore wind) with shortened legal processes.
• PVN Empowerment (Resolution 66.6/2025/NQ-CP): PVN is now authorized to approve overall planning for most oil and gas field developments and approve adjustments if investment capital increases by no more than 10%.
• Industry Outlook: Upstream construction value is estimated at 9.5 billion USD for the 2025-2029 period (+120% vs 2019-2024). GAS revenue from gas supply is projected to reach 84,828 billion VND by 2030 due to Block B and Blue Whale projects.+1

Removing Barriers for Offshore Wind Power

According to the Resolution on National Energy Development 2026-2030:

• 2025-2030 Projects: May appoint investors without land use rights auctions or bidding if they meet requirements for defense, security, and national sovereignty. Authority belongs to the Prime Minister.+1
• 2031-2035 Projects: Investment approval authority belongs to the Chairman of the Provincial People’s Committee where the capacity gathering point is located.
• Surveying: SOEs holding 100% charter capital may be assigned sea areas for surveying if projects are not yet approved.

LNG Power Hindered by “Old Mindset”

• Targets: By 2030, total gas power capacity must reach 37,330 MW (24.8% of the system), including 22,400 MW of imported LNG.+1
• Bottlenecks: Experts argue that current policies apply “old mindsets” to a new business field. Vietnam lacks a unified legal framework for LNG imports and trading based on international practices.
• Price Mechanism: Current calculations use “static” parameters while global LNG prices fluctuate. A synchronous price formula is needed to attract credit institutions.

Europe Faces Renewable Energy “Bottleneck”

• Permitting Delays: Nearly 1,000 GW of renewable projects are stuck waiting for approval in Europe, with some permits taking a decade. Italy alone accounts for ~370 GW.+2
• Investment Needs: Europe needs 700 billion USD before 2030 to avoid falling behind in the energy transition.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Exports to the US Increased by 28.1% in 2025

• Leading Sectors:
  • Computers, electronic products, and components: >42 billion USD (+81.3%).
  • Machinery, equipment, tools: 24.1 billion USD (+9.4%).
  • Textiles and garments: 17.8 billion USD (+10.7%).
• High Growth Items: Toys and sports equipment parts (+260.3%); Glass and glass products (+99.9%); Coffee (+56.9%); Wires and cables (+52.2%).

Red Sea Tension: Shipping Costs Shock

• Route Changes: Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) have stopped using the Bab al-Mandab strait, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope due to security risks.
• Cost Impact: Container freight rates have increased by 80-150%, and delivery times extended by 10-14 days.
• Stock Market Reaction: Shipping stocks (VSC, HAH, PVT, VOS) gained positively as investors expect improved revenue from higher rates.+1

Philippines Plans to Import 3.6 Million Tons of Rice

• Volume: Philippines plans to import 3.6 million tons in 2026, with 75-80% expected to come from Vietnam.
• Bilateral Agreement: The two countries may proceed to sign an agreement for 2.5 million tons.
• Market Expansion: Philippines requested market access for seafood and frozen chicken, while Vietnam requested access for fresh chilies, bell peppers, garlic, carrots, and onions.+1

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

Customs Management in E-commerce Boom

• New Software: Customs deployed management software for small-value goods via express delivery on July 9, 2025, handling 450,000-600,000 declarations/day.
• Transport Management: Pilot software at Kim Thanh International Border Gate (Lao Cai) reduced logistics costs for businesses by 10-15%.
• Future Plans: Implement digital customs IT system in 2026 and draft a decree on customs management for e-commerce exports/imports.

Spring Fair 2026: Creating Multidimensional Trade Space

• Event Details: Feb 2 – 8, 2026, at Vietnam Exhibition Center (VEC), Hanoi.
• Highlight: International Exhibition on Value Chains (VIVC 2026) covering textiles, footwear, and furniture with the theme “From Materials to Markets”.
• Trade Office Role: Trade offices in Japan and the US are actively inviting partners to participate to utilize FTAs like CPTPP and RCEP.+2

Tet Preparation: Prioritizing Goods for Disaster Zones

• Hanoi Reserves: Prepared 300,000 tons of rice, 60,000 tons of pork, 16,000 tons of beef, and 340,000 tons of vegetables.
• Stabilization: MoIT Directive 18/CT-BCT requires localities to organize mobile sales trips to remote and disaster-stricken areas, ensuring completion before Jan 15, 2026.+1
• Enforcement: 7 working groups established to inspect anti-smuggling and market stabilization efforts.

OCOP Products: Platform for Local Breakthrough

• Scale: Currently ~17,400 products rated 3 stars or higher.
• Distribution: Hanoi built over 100 OCOP sales points. Many products have entered modern retail chains and e-commerce.+2
• Success Story: Ly Son Garlic (5-star OCOP) by Phu Sinh Company is sold out, supplying over 200 tons annually to processing partners.+1

Domestic Pork Prices Rise Sharply Near Tet

• Current Price: 65,000 – 76,000 VND/kg nationwide, the highest since the beginning of the year. Average is 71,300 VND/kg.+1
• Breeding Stock: Prices increased by 50,000 – 100,000 VND/con, reaching 2.4 – 2.5 million VND/con.
• Forecast: Prices likely to hover around 75,000 VND/kg; supply remains sufficient for Tet.

F. TRADE REMEDIES

China and EU Reach Step on EV Dispute

• Agreement: EU and China agreed on a mechanism for a minimum import price for Chinese EVs to resolve tariff disputes.
• Market Share: Chinese EVs held 6% of the EU market in H1 2025 and could reach 10% by 2030 despite tariffs.

US Imposes 25% Tariff on Iran’s Trading Partners

• Policy: US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country maintaining business activities with Iran, effective immediately.
• Impact: Iran exports to 147 partners, with major markets including China, UAE, and India.