Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 15, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

WB Upgrades Vietnam’s Growth Forecast to nearly 2.4 Times the Global Average

According to the latest “Global Economic Prospects” report by the World Bank (WB), the world economy is showing better-than-expected resilience.

• Global Outlook: Global growth is expected to decrease slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before recovering to 2.7% in 2027.
• Vietnam Forecast: The WB forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.3% in 2026 and bounce back strongly to 6.7% in 2027. This is an increase of 0.2% for both years compared to the October 2025 update.
• Comparison: Vietnam’s forecasted growth for 2026-2027 is more than 2.4 times higher than the global average (2.6%–2.7%). It also far exceeds the East Asia – Pacific regional average (3.4% and 3.0%) and is significantly faster than China (4.4% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027).+1

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

Credit Growth Target of 15% for 2026 Deemed “Not Too Tight”

• Target: The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) projects a system-wide credit growth of approximately 15% for 2026, adjustable based on actual conditions.
• Context: In 2025, credit grew by about 19.01%, contributing to a GDP growth of 8.02%. However, the adjustment to 15% aims to balance supporting high growth (GDP target ≥10%) with controlling inflation (around 4.5%) and ensuring system safety.+2

Vietnam’s Economic Resilience in the Era of Multi-Shocks

• Current State: Experts at a workshop by the Institute of World Economics and Politics assessed that Vietnam has moved from “passive defense” to “flexible response” but has not yet reached “active defense”.
• Recommendation: The economy must shift from “passive absorption” of FDI to “upgrading cooperation,” linking FDI with localization rates and ESG standards to avoid FDI becoming isolated “oases”.

China’s Trade Surplus Hits Record Nearly $1.2 Trillion

• Record High: Despite US tariff policies, China achieved a record trade surplus of nearly 1.2 trillion USD in 2025. This figure is equivalent to the GDP of a top 20 global economy like Saudi Arabia.+1
• December Data: Exports rose 6.6% and imports rose 5.7% in December 2025.
• Strategy: Chinese firms are shifting focus to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the US market.

C. ENERGY

Abolition of Compensation Mechanism Decision for Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Project

• Legal Update: Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha signed Decision No. 80 on Jan 14, 2026, abolishing Decision No. 1504 (2013) regarding compensation and resettlement for the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Project.
• Reason: Under Resolution 66.8 (2025), the compensation and resettlement component has been separated into an independent project.+1
• Implementation:
  • Khanh Hoa PPC is the governing body for the resettlement project.
  • Investors: EVN is the investor for Ninh Thuan 1; Petrovietnam is the investor for Ninh Thuan 2.
  • Timeline: EVN is finalizing the pre-feasibility study adjustment. Negotiations on the Inter-governmental Agreement with Russia are positive, aiming to start some construction items in 2026.

PM Directs Proposal of Regulations on EV Battery Disposal

• Directive: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to propose regulations on the disposal of electric vehicle batteries.
• Carbon Market: The Ministry of Finance is tasked to establish and operate the Carbon Credit Exchange soon.
• Net Zero: The PM emphasized that achieving Net Zero by 2050 is a political mission, not just a promise.

International Integration: What Do Vietnamese Gas Enterprises Need?

• Opportunity: Vietnam can become an LNG import, transit, and distribution hub for ASEAN.
• Strategy: Enterprises need to act as wholesalers, linking together to increase competitiveness rather than operating as fragmented individual units.
• Challenge: The biggest bottleneck is the legal framework, which is still domestic-centric and slow to update to international practices.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Simplifying Customs Procedures for Import-Export

• New Regulation: The Ministry of Finance issued Circular No. 121/2025/TT-BTC (Dec 18, 2025) to replace outdated regulations.
• Improvements:
  • Digitization: Declarations and documents are processed via the electronic data system.
  • Reduction: Customs dossier documents for supplementary declarations are reduced to only 2 types.
  • Speed: Administrative procedure processing time reduced from 5 days to 3 days, increasing speed by 40%.

VASEP Warns of Risks in Seafood Exports to the US

• Risk: Vietnam faces a risk of losing over 500 million USD annually if MMPA regulations are not met.
• Deadline: From Jan 1, 2026, the US bans seafood imports from 11 Vietnamese fisheries not yet recognized as equivalent under MMPA. Crab fishing is extended for 6 months from Nov 12, 2025.+1
• Requirement: Enterprises must have a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) to export to the US.

Vietnamese Agri-Products Accelerate Exports to ASEAN in 2025

• Total Revenue: Exports to ASEAN reached 3.61 billion USD in 2025, a decrease of 32.9% YoY.
• Commodities:
  • Rice: 1.94 billion USD (down 50.5%).
  • Coffee: 1.07 billion USD (up 24.6%).
  • Cashew: 109 million USD (up 35.8%).
  • Pepper: 126 million USD (up 51.3%).
• Markets: Philippines led with 1.9 billion USD (-35.5%). Thailand increased by 12.4% to 608 million USD.+1

Agri-Products Positioned in Global Value Chain via Technology

• Record Export: Total agro-forestry-fishery exports reached a record 70.09 billion USD in 2025, up 12%.
• Deep Processing: Coffee exceeded 8 billion USD due to roasted/instant products; Fruit and vegetables hit 8.56 billion USD thanks to frozen durian and processed coconut.
• Technology: Adoption of IQF (Quick Freezing) and Freeze Drying helps reach distant markets like North America and EU.

Traceability: The New “Passport” for Vietnamese Goods

• EU Requirements: From Jan 1, 2026, EU applies the CATCH electronic certification system for seafood. EUDR (Anti-Deforestation Regulation) requires proof that supply chains do not cause deforestation.+1
• Challenge: Small and medium enterprises face high investment costs (billions of VND) for digital traceability systems.
• Solution: Digital transformation via QR codes, blockchain, and AI is essential to reduce costs and ensure transparency.

Horecava Fair: Gateway for Vietnamese Goods to Europe

• Event: Horecava 2026 took place from Jan 12-15 in Amsterdam, attracting ~70,000 visitors.
• Success: Vietnamese products like pho soup base, noodles, and bamboo shoot vermicelli (Vianco) are now on shelves of over 60 supermarkets serving the food service industry in Netherlands and Belgium.
• Innovation: New products like salt coffee and strawberry/mango matcha powder attracted significant interest.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

Spring Fair 2026: New Bridge for Vietnam-India Cooperation

• Event: “Vietnam Glorious Spring Fair 2026” will be held in Hanoi from Feb 4-8, 2026.+1
• Cooperation:
  • Textiles: Vietnam exports ~$46B but imports 65% of materials. India is a key supplier of cotton and fiber.
  • Leather & Footwear: Vietnam is strong in finished products ($29B exports), while India is strong in leather and components.
  • Furniture: India’s growing urbanization offers a huge market for Vietnamese furniture.

Domestic Market Breakthrough Creates Momentum for 14th Party Congress

• Performance 2025: Total retail sales of goods and consumer services reached approx. 7,092 trillion VND, up ~10% vs 2024.
• E-commerce: Reached 25 billion USD in 2024, growing 18-25%/year, accounting for ~10% of total retail sales.
• Target 2026: Total retail sales to reach 7,882 trillion VND, up 11%.
• Long-term Goal: GDP per capita of 8,500 USD by 2030, with retail growth of 13.0-13.5%/year.

Ready for Peak Tet Shopping Season

• Stockpiling: Distributors and manufacturers have increased reserves by about 20% compared to the previous year.
• Demand: Data from Metric indicates Tet shopping demand will increase by over 72% vs the annual average.
• Hanoi: Prepared goods for 3 months. Self-sufficiency is high for pork (109%) and poultry (>200%).
• HCMC: Enterprises prepared 26,000 billion VND worth of goods, with 9,000 billion VND for price stabilization products.