Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 16, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

MoIT Introduces Candidate for the 16th National Assembly

• Candidate: On January 15, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) implemented conferences to introduce Mr. Le Manh Hung – Acting Minister of Industry and Trade – as a candidate for the 16th National Assembly (2026-2031 term).
• Process: The conferences included a leadership meeting to propose the candidate, a voter opinion conference at the workplace, and an expanded leadership conference to discuss and introduce the candidate.

Shaping New Growth for the Industry and Trade Sector

• Context: The Central Policy and Strategy Committee worked with MoIT to discuss the project “Strategic solutions to promote double-digit economic growth in the new era”.
• 2026-2030 Scenario: The sector aims for macro stability, integration, institutional reform, and promoting industry, energy, and trade as driving forces.
• Orientation: Focus on fast and sustainable growth with businesses at the center, developing high-tech processing and manufacturing, clean energy, and modern trade.
• Flexibility: Three growth scenarios (high, base, low) have been built to proactively respond to risks and seize opportunities amidst global volatility and the green/digital transition.
• Goals: Realize the goal of double-digit growth, modernize logistics, and improve export quality.

Export Surge Forecast for 2026

• Forecast: In 2026, total export turnover is expected to increase by over 8% compared to 2025.
• Trade Surplus: Expected to exceed 23 billion USD, an increase of about 15% compared to the previous year.
• HSBC Report: “Vietnam at a glance” assesses that Vietnam will face global trade decline risks but can overcome them by exporting “suitable” products (e.g., electronics driven by AI demand) and expanding market share in the US.
• GDP: HSBC forecasts GDP growth will reach 6.7% in 2026, supported by infrastructure development and key major projects.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

Vietnam is Laos’ 3rd Largest Trading Partner

• Ranking: Vietnam is currently the 3rd largest trading partner of Laos, after China and Thailand.
• Driver: This result is due to the effective implementation of bilateral trade agreements, border trade, and trade promotion activities.
• Goal: Aiming to raise bilateral trade turnover to 5 billion USD, requiring synchronous coordination from ministries, localities, and businesses.

MoIT Requires Assurance of Goods and Electricity Supply for Tet

• Directive: MoIT issued Directive No. 271/BCT-KHTC to implement the Prime Minister’s Directive on ensuring a joyful and safe Year of the Horse (Tet Binh Ngo) 2026.
• Market Monitoring: The Domestic Market Department is tasked with monitoring the market to build supply plans for essential goods, ensuring no shortages or unreasonable price hikes occur.
• Actions: Implement stabilization programs, connect supply and demand, bring Vietnamese goods to rural/industrial areas, and ensure continuous petrol supply.

C. INDUSTRY

Need for Long-term Financial Support for Supporting Industries

• Current State: Despite policies on preferential loans and training, the number of businesses accessing these incentives is low, and the supporting industry has not met expectations.
• Ho Chi Minh City: The stimulus program supporting businesses was paused in the last 2 years, disrupting business plans and causing some to leave the market.
• Needs: Businesses need long-term, methodical capital support (hundreds of billions of VND) to build modern factories and high-skilled labor to master new technologies.

FDI Wave Opportunity: Supporting Industry Must Escape “Processing Trap”

• Record Capital: Realized FDI reached a record 27.62 billion USD, positioning Vietnam as a new production hub.
• The Trap: To meet the 70% localization goal by 2030, businesses must escape the “processing trap”. Currently, out of nearly 7,000 supporting industry enterprises, only about 300 can join supply chains of major groups like Samsung or Toyota.+1
• Localization Rate: Remains low in many new industries, only reaching 30-40%.
• Structural Limits: 88% of supporting industry enterprises are SMEs with fewer than 300 employees, making it hard to invest in machinery or standardize processes.
• Capital Access: 21% of Vietnamese businesses face credit difficulties. The SMEDF fund only disbursed under 600 billion VND to fewer than 40 businesses by 2023.

D. ENERGY

Completing Energy Infrastructure – Foundation for Long-term Growth

• Strategy: The 13th Party Central Committee identified completing energy infrastructure as a strategic breakthrough.
• Targets: By 2030, total primary energy supply to reach 150-170 million tons of oil equivalent; total power capacity to reach 183-236 GW (renewable energy 25-30%).
• Challenge: Current capacity is 91 GW. Doubling or increasing capacity by 2.5 times by 2030 is a major challenge.
• Quality Demand: Heavy industries (like zinc electrolysis) and high-tech sectors (Semiconductors, AI) require stable, high-quality power. Google’s AI expansion could increase power demand by 10 times.
• Lesson: Development must be synchronized. Past renewable projects (solar/wind) were built faster than the transmission grid, leading to waste.

Key Power Projects in Lam Dong Stalled

• Projects: Son My I, Son My II Thermal Power, and Son My LNG Terminal are stalled following Government Inspectorate Conclusion No. 1027/KL-TTCP issued two years ago.
• Status: The Security Investigation Agency (Ministry of Public Security) determined not to prosecute these projects.
• Resolution: Lam Dong PPC is focusing on removing difficulties under Resolution 233/NQ-CP and asking MoIT/Monre to handle planning overlaps regarding bauxite and titanium reserves.

LNG: New Pillar of Energy Security and Risks

• Outlook: LNG is critical, but infrastructure is fragmented. Only PV GAS’s Thi Vai terminal is operational; others (Cai Mep, Son My) are in early stages.+1
• Infrastructure Gap: Connecting LNG terminals, regasification systems, and pipelines to power plants (like Nhon Trach 3 & 4) remains a challenge.
• Legal Risk: Vietnam lacks a specific specialized law for LNG. It is governed by fragmented laws (Oil & Gas, Investment, Construction, Environment), increasing compliance costs and legal risks for investors.

E. IMPORT – EXPORT

Vietnam Proactively Reduces Rice Export Volume from 2026

• Trend:
  • 2024: Record 9.2 million tons ($5.8 billion).
  • 2025: Over 8 million tons ($4.1 billion).
  • 2026 Plan: Export only about 7 million tons.
• Strategy: Following Decision 583, the strategy is “reduce quantity, increase quality,” aiming for only 4 million tons by 2030 to focus on high-value segments.
• Challenges: Philippines (a major market) is applying import quotas, creating difficulties during peak harvest. VFA recommends government contracts with Ghana, Singapore, and stockpiling support.

Textile Exports 2026: From Recovery to New Challenges

• 2025 Performance: Estimated export turnover of 46 billion USD (+5.6%), trade surplus of 21 billion USD.
• Localization: Domestic value ratio reached 52%, showing improved material autonomy.
• Markets: Exporting to 138 markets. The US remains the largest ($18 billion).
• 2026 Outlook: Forecasted to be challenging due to slow global growth, rising protectionism, and shorter order cycles.

F. DOMESTIC MARKET

Mekong Delta Tet Shopping: Online Becomes Popular

• Shift: Online shopping is increasingly present in Tet spending in the Mekong Delta, alongside traditional markets.
• Culture: Traditional markets (Can Tho, Long Xuyen) remain busy for fresh food, fruit, and flowers, as consumers prefer “touching” fresh goods.
• Convenience: Supermarkets and convenience stores play a stable role in urban centers.

Large Quantity of Suspected Smuggled Goods Seized at Hanoi Railway Station

• Incident: On Jan 16, 2026, authorities inspected a gathering point at Gate 8, Hanoi Railway Station.
• Seizure: Found 1,930 cosmetic products, 854 clothing items, 596 health supplement boxes, and auto parts without invoices or origin proof.
• Value: Estimated at over 500 million VND.

Flexible Price Management and Petrol Supply Assurance

• 2025 Review: Domestic supply reached 28.6 million m3/ton (97% of target), ensuring consumption needs. Global prices fluctuated between 80-86 USD/barrel.
• 2026 Forecast: Global supply disruptions are low risk; prices expected to hover in the 65-75 USD/barrel range.
• Action: Management needs to be flexible to control inflation and support growth.

Hanoi Increases Tet Goods Reserves by 30%

• Reserves: Businesses in the stabilization program increased reserves by 5-30% compared to Tet 2025.
• Vietnamese Goods: Account for over 80% of most items.

G. E-COMMERCE

Consumer Benefits and Platform Shift

• Landscape: B2B platforms are dominated by Shopee, Lazada. Cross-border trade relies on Alibaba, Amazon.
• Pure Vietnamese Platforms: Platforms like Freso (Viettel) focus on connecting farms to F&B, while Vietnam Post focuses on high-quality agricultural products.
• Impact: Reorganizing supply chains towards transparency benefits consumers with better prices and quality reliability.

Drastic Removal of Banned/Fake Goods on E-commerce during Tet

• Campaign: The Department of E-commerce and Digital Economy launched a peak anti-smuggling/counterfeit campaign from Dec 10, 2025, to Mar 15, 2026.
• Requirement: Platforms must review and remove banned or restricted items that do not meet legal regulations.

Origin Transparency: Foundation of Digital Trust

• Context: The E-commerce Law places origin transparency at the center.
• Digital C/O: Circular 40/2025/TT-BCT (effective July 1, 2025) mandates the entire C/O process on the eCoSys system.
• Benefit: Reduces waiting time for paper C/O (currently 3-5 days) and connects with the National Single Window.
• Challenge: SMEs struggle with technology application. State support in training and digital infrastructure is crucial.

Pure Vietnamese E-commerce Platforms Struggle

• New Players: Viettel launched Freso (fresh food/F&B); Vietnam Post launched a specialty agricultural floor.
• Reality: Platforms like Tiki and Sendo have shrunk ambitions against foreign giants.
• Failure Cause: Many previous projects (Adayroi, VuiVui) failed because they chose the wrong strategy (burning money on general retail) instead of niche differentiation.

H. TRADE REMEDIES & PROMOTION

Protecting Export Interests Amidst Protectionism

• Trend: In 2025, global trade defense investigations increased in complexity.
• Action: MoIT is monitoring 420 items exported to 10 markets, specifically 27 high-risk groups.
• Advice: Businesses must diversify markets to avoid focusing too much on markets that frequently conduct investigations.

Trade Promotion: Strategic Launchpad for Exports

• Shift: Promotion is no longer just attending fairs but a competition of image and sustainable commitment.
• Green Promotion: Entering 2026, promotion is linked to green growth. The wood industry aims to promote its responsible image on global channels (like CNN) to escape the “outsourcing” label and compete with brands like IKEA