Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 19, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Promoting the “Core Pillar” Role of Industry and Trade in the New Era

On the occasion of the 14th National Party Congress, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang gave press interviews clarifying the core, pillar role of the Industry and Trade sector in the country’s economic development and ensuring national energy security.

Media Coverage: Major outlets such as Industry and Trade Newspaper, VOV, Economic & Urban Newspaper, and Lao Dong Newspaper have extensively covered this content, highlighting the sector’s mission in the new era.

Vietnam Trade Offices: The “Extended Arm” of Foreign Trade

With a presence in most major economic and commercial centers globally, the Vietnam Trade Office system is affirming its role as an “extended arm” in foreign trade development.

Network: Vietnam currently maintains trade offices in 63 locations abroad.
Key Markets: Includes the US, EU, China, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, which are crucial for exports but demand high standards and face trade defense measures.
Potential Markets: Includes South Asia, Middle East – Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, which offer growth room but carry risks regarding politics, payment, and logistics.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

14th Party Congress: The Engine Driving Economic Growth

Achievements (1986-2026): After 40 years of renovation, Vietnam has transformed from a backward economy to a developing nation targeting high income by 2045.
GDP Milestones: GDP per capita increased from over 100 USD (1986) to over 5,000 USD in 2025, joining the upper-middle-income group. The GDP scale in 2025 reached over 514 billion USD, ranking 32nd in the world.
Growth: In the 2021-2025 period, despite COVID-19 and global instability, Vietnam maintained an average GDP growth of about 6.3%/year.
Future Strategy: Science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation are identified as key pillars to achieve double-digit GDP growth in the 2026–2030 period.

SOEs Break Records, Leading Macro Stability

Performance: 2025 recorded a strong breakthrough for State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), with many corporations reporting record profits and exceeding plans.
Role: Following Resolution No. 79-NQ/TW, SOEs are affirmed as key material forces and macro-regulation tools, acting as “lead cranes” in strategic infrastructure, energy security, and food security.

Administrative Reform and UKVFTA Implementation

Government Machinery: In 2026, the Government will push for streamlining the apparatus, especially internal focal points. The 2026 operating theme is “Discipline, responsibility; proactive efficiency; innovation; breakthrough acceleration; sustainable growth”.
UKVFTA Focal Points: The Prime Minister issued Decision No. 128/QĐ-TTg designating MOIT as the lead agency for UKVFTA implementation, covering trade remedies, non-tariff barriers in renewable energy, and competition policy. The Ministry of Finance will coordinate on SOE data.

Asian Rice Export Prices Drop Due to Weak Demand

Market Trend: Weak demand has caused export rice prices in India and Thailand to fall, while Vietnam’s prices remained flat last week.
India: 5% broken parboiled rice dropped to 353–358 USD/ton; 5% white rice fell to 350–354 USD/ton due to the depreciating rupee and bumper crops. India exported 21.55 million tons in 2025 (up 19.4%).
Outlook: Global prices are forecast to face downward pressure throughout 2026 as India, Thailand, and Vietnam race to push inventory.

C. ENERGY

Absolutely No Power Shortage in Peak 2026

The Prime Minister requires absolute concentration to ensure sufficient electricity for 2026-2030.

MOIT Responsibility: Comprehensive responsibility for operating the power system, supervising key projects (especially in the North), and ensuring fuel supply.
Key Projects: Urgently operate 500 kV substations (Pho Noi, Hoa Binh, Son La), 500/220 kV lines, and power sources like Vung Ang II, Quang Trach I, and Na Duong II.
Long-term (2027-2030): Prepare investments for Ninh Thuan 1 and 2 nuclear power plants, offshore wind, and LNG.
Q1/2026 Deadline: Urgently grant investment policies and select investors for Power Plan VIII projects pending procedures.

New Regulations Proposed for Offshore Wind

Draft Decree: MOIT is drafting guidance for Resolution 253/2025/QH15.
Conditions: Surveying enterprises must have a minimum charter capital of 5,000 billion VND and experience in large-scale energy projects.
Scope: Regulations cover surveying dossiers and investment approval for projects operating in 2025–2030 and 2031–2035.

Widening Doors for Rooftop Solar

Excess Power: For the first time, MOIT proposes allowing the sale of more than 50% of excess power in the draft amendments to Decrees 57 and 58.
DPPA Issues: Despite Decree 57, industrial zones remain confused about direct power sales between businesses due to legal barriers. Experts urge completing DPPA guidelines for industrial zones and simplifying procedures for self-consumption rooftop solar.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Pressure to Conquer $500 Billion Export Goal in 2026

2025 Performance: Total import-export turnover reached 930 billion USD (+18.2%), with an absolute increase of 143 billion USD.
2026 Forecast: Exports are expected to grow over 8% to 513 billion USD, with a trade surplus exceeding 23 billion USD.
Risk: Since July 2025, the 40% reciprocal tax on “transshipped” goods has weakened domestic export growth. US criteria for transshipment remain vague, causing caution.
Recommendation: Accelerate localization and support industries to reduce dependence on FDI and foreign materials.

China Tightens Steel Exports: “Golden” Opportunity for Vietnam

Context: China’s 2025 steel exports reached 107.72 million tons (11 months) but faced a “price war” with low value.
Shift: From 2026, China may shift exports from Vietnam to Africa and Latin America due to tariff barriers.
Opportunity: This creates a gap for Vietnamese upstream enterprises (HPG, FHS) to reclaim domestic market share and boost exports to markets where China faces difficulties (India, Indonesia, Japan).

US Exports to Emerging Markets Surge

Data: Seaborne shipments from the US to 20 emerging economies rose from 190 million tons (2024) to 223 million tons (2025).
Vietnam: Corn imports from the US in 2025 increased 21 times, reaching 1.7 million tons. November alone saw a record 383,000 tons.

France Tightens Pesticide Residues: Warning for Agro-Exports

New Decree: On Jan 5, 2026, France issued a decree banning imports containing residues of 5 specific active ingredients.
Impact: Directly affects key Vietnamese exports like mango, avocado, passion fruit, and fresh vegetables.
Advice: Businesses must review production processes to control residues and update technical requirements with partners.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET

Retailers Race to Open Supermarkets

Despite the online shopping trend, physical expansion remains aggressive:

WinCommerce: Opened 764 new stores in 2025 (161 in Dec alone), reaching 4,592 points of sale.
Bach Hoa Xanh: Opened 721 stores in 11 months of 2025, exceeding the plan and entering the Northern market.
Saigon Co.op: Opened about 150 new points.
GS25: Aiming for 700 stores by 2027.

Tet Goods and Reserves

Da Nang: Total goods reserve for Tet 2026 is estimated at nearly 3,500 billion VND. Enterprise reserves increased by 10-15%, and petrol reserves increased by 20% (enough for 19 days).
Supermarkets: Go! Thăng Long and WinMart reported goods reserves increased by 25%, with purchasing power expected to rise by 20-25%.

Petrol Price Forecast and Management Reform

Price Forecast: In the upcoming adjustment (Thursday), gasoline prices may decrease slightly (RON 95 down ~40 VND/liter), while diesel may increase (~320 VND/liter).
Market Context: Global crude prices rose slightly (WTI +0.42%, Brent +0.36%) but remain cautious.
Policy Reform: The new Decree on petrol business will fundamentally change the pricing mechanism, allowing distributors and retailers to decide selling prices. This will lead to a major restructuring of the distribution system, requiring strict supervision to ensure transparency.

F. E-COMMERCE

Urgent Removal of Illegal Firecrackers and Alcohol on E-commerce

Directive: MOIT demands e-commerce platforms immediately remove listings for banned/restricted goods (firecrackers, fireworks, alcohol, tobacco, e-cigarettes) during the Lunar New Year 2026 peak.
Requirement: Platforms must tighten censorship and require sellers to provide documents proving legal origin for conditional business items.

Invoicing on Shopee/TikTok: A Dilemma for Household Businesses

The Issue: Households selling on platforms struggle to issue e-invoices because they lack buyer information (which platforms hold).
Regulation Conflict: Decree 117 requires platforms to pay taxes on behalf of households, but regulations on e-invoices only allow “authorization,” which platforms currently refuse.
Proposal: The Vietnam Tax Consultants Association suggests mandating platforms to issue invoices on behalf of households or removing the invoicing obligation for households if taxes are already deducted by the platform.

“Bringing Markets to Gardens”: E-commerce Changes Rural Economy

Connectivity: About 70% of the global population uses the internet. In Vietnam, this rate is 75.2% – 78.8%, higher than the global average.
Impact: Strong telecom infrastructure (Viettel etc.) enables digital technology to penetrate rural and remote areas, helping to bridge the development gap and improve competitiveness.