Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 21, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Coffee Exports Earn Over 430 Million USD in Just 15 Days

• Revenue: In the first 15 days of January 2026, Vietnamese enterprises exported over 89,000 tons of coffee, earning 433.3 million USD.
• Growth: Compared to the same period last year, volume increased by 20.6% and value increased by 8.6%.
• Ranking: Coffee has surpassed seafood (417 million USD) to become the second-largest agricultural export item, standing only behind wood and wood products (657 million USD).
• Outlook: The Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (VICOFA) estimates 2025-2026 crop output will increase by 5-10% from the 1.8 million tons of the previous crop.
• Global Market: The World Bank forecasts Arabica prices to decrease by 13% in 2026 and 5% in 2027 as global production recovers.

MoIT Proposes May 6 as “Vietnam Logistics Day”

• Proposal: MoIT is finalizing a proposal to the Prime Minister to recognize May 6th annually as “Vietnam Logistics Day”.
• Significance: This date marks President Ho Chi Minh’s signing of Decree No. 61 in 1946 establishing the Ministry of National Economy, which included the Supply Department – a precursor to modern logistics.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

Strategic Solutions for Double-Digit Economic Growth

• Context: At the 14th National Party Congress, the Central Policy and Strategy Committee presented solutions to ensure double-digit economic growth (over 10%) for the 2026-2030 period.
• Urgency: Achieving high growth is deemed urgent to meet the 2030 and 2045 development goals.
• Strategy: Focus on stabilizing macroeconomics, accelerating restructuring based on science and technology, and shifting export strategy from “low price” to “high value and brand”.

Government Resolution 01: GDP Growth Target of 10% or Higher

• Goal: The Government issued Resolution 01/NQ-CP setting the operational theme for 2026 with a GDP growth target of 10% or higher.
• Context: 2026 is the first year of the 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan, requiring a new mindset and decisive action to create a breakthrough.
• Action: Ministries and localities are required to build growth scenarios by quarter and sector, reviewing targets to ensure they match the national goal.

Vietnam’s Economy 2021-2025: A Solid Foundation

• GDP Scale: Estimated at 510 billion USD in 2025, ranking in the top 35 globally.
• Income: GDP per capita exceeded 5,000 USD, entering the upper-middle-income group.
• Trade: Total import-export turnover surpassed 900 billion USD for the first time.
• Infrastructure: 3,000 km of expressways and the 500kV Circuit 3 line were completed.

C. ENERGY

MoIT Proposes Raising LNG Power Contract Output to 75%

• Proposal: MoIT is drafting amendments to Decrees 56 and 100, proposing to raise the minimum long-term contract output (Qc) for LNG power projects to 75% (currently 65%).
• Duration: The mechanism applies for 15 years (currently 10 years) from the commercial operation date.
• Scope: Applies to projects using imported LNG that begin operation between the effective date of the 2024 Electricity Law and Jan 1, 2031.
• Goal: To facilitate investment capital arrangement and ensure energy security.

High GDP Target Challenges Power Sector Growth

• 2025 Review: Power output grew modestly by 4.9% (reached 287.9 billion kWh) despite 8.02% GDP growth, due to mild weather and 10 billion kWh of self-consumption solar.
• 2026 Plan: Forecast total system output at 350 billion kWh (+8.5%) in the base scenario, potentially reaching 360-368 billion kWh (+11.6% to +14%) in high scenarios.
• New Capacity:
  • Nhơn Trạch 3 & 4: Commercial operation in Nov-Dec 2025.
  • Vũng Áng 2: Unit 1 operational.
  • Quang Trạch 1: 95% EPC progress, COD expected in 2026.

Global Energy Trends

• Middle East Renewables: DNV reports the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) renewable capacity will increase 10 times by 2040. Solar and wind will generate 85% of the region’s electricity by 2060.
• Oil Prices: Brent rose 1.53% to 64.92 USD/barrel on Jan 20 due to supply disruption risks in Kazakhstan (Tengiz field) and positive global economic outlooks.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Cutting Conditions for International Shipping Business

• New Decree: Government Decree 14/2026/NĐ-CP amends regulations, abolishing several business conditions for international shipping enterprises regarding ships, organizational structure, and personnel.
• Simplified Requirements: Enterprises only need to meet establishment regulations and obtain a certificate of eligibility.
• Financial Guarantee: Must still maintain a guarantee of minimum 5 billion VND or buy insurance to secure crew obligations.

F. TRADE REMEDIES

Indonesia Imposes Safeguard Duty on Imported Cotton Fabric

• Decision: Indonesia issued a decision to apply official safeguard measures on imported cotton fabric for 3 years, from Jan 10, 2026, to Jan 9, 2029.
• Scope: Covers 16 HS codes. The scope is significantly narrowed compared to the initial lawsuit.
• Duty Rates: Applied as a specific duty (Rp/meter), decreasing over 3 periods:
  • Period 1: 3,000–3,300 Rp/m.
  • Period 2: 2,800–3,100 Rp/m.
  • Period 3: 2,600–2,900 Rp/m.
• Impact: Vietnam is not exempted as its import share is 5.04%, ranking second after China. However, the duties are nearly 7 times lower than the initial proposal.