Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 23, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Acting Minister Le Manh Hung Elected to the 14th Central Committee

• Event: On January 22, 2026, the 14th National Party Congress discussed and voted on personnel for the Central Committee.
• Result: The Congress approved 200 members (180 official, 20 alternate). Mr. Le Manh Hung – Member of the Government Party Civil Affairs Committee, Secretary of the Party Committee, Acting Minister of Industry and Trade – was elected to the 14th Central Committee with high confidence.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

Global Economy: “Ultimatums” and New Trade Map

• “Ultimatum” Policy: At Davos, US President Donald Trump withdrew tariff threats regarding Greenland, but the trend of using economic coercion as a policy tool remains a major concern, shifting the global order away from rules-based cooperation.
• New Trade Map: BCG identifies four emerging “poles”: US, China, BRICS+ (excluding China), and “Flexible Multilateral” economies (Europe, Japan, etc.). Intra-bloc trade within the “Flexible Multilateral” group and China-Global South trade are expected to be the main growth drivers.

Three Drivers for Vietnam’s GDP Growth in 2026

• Forecast: VinaCapital forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 8% (base scenario) to 10% (positive scenario) in 2026.
• 3 Pillars:
  1. Domestic Consumption: Gradual recovery.
  2. Exports: Stable, with electronics/computers to the US having increased 80% and FDI growing 9% in 2025.
  3. Infrastructure Investment: Lagged impact from strong disbursement in 2025.
• Standard Chartered: Also assesses Vietnam as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies due to competitive manufacturing and fiscal policy room.

14th Party Congress: Push for Growth Goals

• Opportunities: Professor Fan Jin E (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) highlights 6 opportunities for Vietnam, including international context, FTAs, cooperation with China, green transition, Industry 4.0 technology spillover, and increased multilateral voice.
• Challenges: Global volatility, geopolitical risks, and the “middle-income trap”.

Incompatibility of Electricity vs. GDP Growth Comparison

• Analysis: Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh (GSO) argues that comparing electricity growth elasticity with GDP is conceptually incompatible because GDP measures value added, while electricity is consumed throughout the Gross Output chain (including intermediate production).
• Risk: Using this ratio for long-term planning can lead to forecasting errors (oversupply or shortage) and misguided energy saving policies.

C. ENERGY

“Super Project” Nuclear Power: Domestic Giants Enter the Race

• Preparation: Domestic enterprises are actively researching new generation nuclear technologies.
• Key Players:
  • PTSC: Researching specific construction capabilities to master part of the technology.
  • PECC2 (TV2) & Rosatom: Signed an MOU in Sept 2025 for the Ninh Thuan 1 project.
  • Other Companies: Deo Ca, FECON (FCN), Coteccons (CTD), and Hoa Phat (HPG) are also preparing to participate in the supply chain.

Global Nuclear Trends: China and Russia Dominate

• Dominance: Since 2016, China and Russia have built over 90% of the 63 new nuclear plants globally. In 2025 alone, China started 7 out of 9 new large-scale projects.
• Russia: Rosatom is implementing projects in Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt (El Dabaa).
• USA: No new commercial plants since 2013, but President Trump signed an order targeting 10 new reactors by 2030, sparking a “nuclear renaissance”.

Vietnam Needs Long-term Policy for Nuclear Power

• Expert View: The Network of Vietnamese Nuclear Experts Abroad (VietNuc) recommends the 14th Congress commit to a long-term strategy.
• Human Resources: While basic training exists, Vietnam lacks experienced personnel for large-scale implementation. VietNuc members (from EDF, Setec, Andra) suggest a formal mechanism to utilize overseas Vietnamese experts.

Natural Gas: Key to Green Transition

• Role: Gas is the solution for the dual problem of energy security and emission reduction.
• Recommendations: Complete the legal framework for the entire gas chain; separate state management from business; issue technical standards for LNG; and build flexible infrastructure integrating domestic gas and imported LNG.

Ca Mau Calls for Investment in 2 Wind Power Plants (4,800 Billion VND)

• Hoa Binh 5.1: Vinh Hau commune, 16 turbines, 80 MW.
• Dong Hai 1 (Phase 3): Dong Hai commune, 8-10 turbines, 50 MW.
• Current Status: Ca Mau has 16 operational wind projects (870.2 MW). 2 projects (Ca Mau 1A, 1B – 176 MW) are about to operate.

China Consolidates No. 1 Position in Battery Storage

• Record: In 2025, China added 174.19 GWh of battery storage (BESS), up 40% YoY, accounting for over half of global new capacity (~315 GWh).
• Comparison: China’s new capacity is more than 3 times that of North America, despite the US AI power boom.

D. IMPORT – EXPORT

Vietnam Pepper Maintains Top Export Position

• 2025 Performance: Export turnover of pepper and spices exceeded 2.12 billion USD for the first time.
• Pepper: Alone reached over 1.6 billion USD, maintaining the No. 1 position in the world.
• Strategy: Experts advise shifting from volume expansion to quality and value enhancement amidst strict global standards.

E. DOMESTIC MARKET & E-COMMERCE

Counterfeit Goods Rise with E-commerce Heat

• Situation: E-commerce growth has led to an organized “ecosystem” of fraud.
• “Gray Zone”: Large-scale “hand-carried” goods business on digital platforms (no invoice, no tax) is identified as disguised commercial fraud, harming compliant businesses and consumers.
• Solution: IPPG representatives call for e-commerce platforms to automatically remove products using unauthorized brand names upon request.

F. GREEN GROWTH

Solving the “5 Directions” Puzzle in GHG Inventory

• Challenge: Businesses face a “matrix” of data when trying to meet 5 different reporting goals (Scope 3, LCA, ESG, etc.), leading to disjointed and rejected data.
• Solution: Build a unified “carbon data infrastructure”. Experts from the Vietnam Green Transformation Association (VGA) emphasize the need for consistent data boundaries to meet standards like CBAM and EUDR.