Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 28, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Agro-Forestry-Fishery Exports Target 74 Billion USD Milestone

• Target: According to the 2026 action program, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment aims for an export turnover of approximately 73-74 billion USD, surpassing the 70.09 billion USD achieved in 2025.
• Strategy: Focus on key product groups capable of maintaining value growth and expanding markets.
• Key Drivers: To realize this goal, the focus is on enhancing value-added through deep processing, meeting requirements for traceability and green standards, while improving institutions and cutting compliance costs for businesses.
• Role: The Ministry emphasizes this as a key factor for the sector to maintain its role as an economic pillar amidst global uncertainty.

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (FOR REFERENCE)

1. Global Economy 2026 May Recover Well Despite Trade Tensions

• WB Forecast: The World Bank’s latest report forecasts global growth to remain stable at 2.6% in 2026 and rise to 2.7% in 2027.
• Resilience: The global economy is showing better-than-expected resilience, especially the US economy.
• Income Gap: While developed economies have surpassed 2019 per capita income levels, about 20% of developing economies still have lower per capita incomes.
• Forecast for Developing Nations: Growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2026 (from 4.2% in 2025) before rising to 4.1% in 2027 as trade tensions ease and investment flows increase.
• Low-Income Countries: Growth is expected to average 5.6% in 2026-2027, driven by domestic demand and export recovery, but insufficient to close the income gap.
• Recommendation: Mr. Indermit Gill (WB Chief Economist) advises governments in emerging economies to liberalize investment, curb public spending, and invest in technology and education to avoid stagnation.

2. Vietnam to Lead ASEAN Trade Growth

• HSBC Report: In “ASEAN Perspectives – Year 2026”, HSBC assesses that ASEAN’s trade momentum remains robust even as “frontloading” orders decline.
• Market Share: ASEAN’s share of global exports increased sharply from 7.4% (2023) to nearly 9.4% (2025).
• Driver: The market share gain is driven by broad-based exports to many countries rather than just traditional markets like the US or China.
• Position: As a “tariff shelter” and hardware supplier for the AI boom, ASEAN (led by Vietnam) is well-positioned to withstand trade hurdles in 2026 and continue attracting FDI.

3. WB Gives Positive Forecast for US Economy

• Growth: WB estimates the US economy grew by 2.1% in 2025, bringing the 2022-2025 average to 2.6% (higher than the pre-pandemic decade average of 2.2%).
• Potential Growth: Mr. Ayhan Kose (WB Deputy Chief Economist) suggests the “potential growth rate” (maximum non-inflationary speed) may have increased to 2.2% – 2.4% due to investment booms and improved productivity.
• 2026 Outlook: WB forecasts US growth at 2.2% in 2026, while BNP Paribas is more optimistic at 2.9%.
• Impact: Higher potential growth means the economy can expand faster without the Fed raising interest rates.

C. ENERGY

1. How to Ease the Market Transition to E10 Gasoline?

• Roadmap: From June 1, 2026, E10 gasoline (10% ethanol) will be sold nationwide.
• Pilot Results: Mr. Ho Ngoc Linh (Petrolimex) reported that after 5 months of piloting in 3 major cities, sales volume increased, and zero complaints were recorded regarding vehicle damage.
• Challenge: Domestic refineries cannot yet fully supply high-quality fuel meeting new standards, necessitating imports.
• Proposal: Petrolimex suggests tax/fee adjustments for E10 to ensure reasonable pricing and consumer acceptance.
• Perspective: Mr. Do Van Tuan (Biofuel Association) emphasizes that Vietnam will still rely on fossil and biofuels as a pillar for years to come, and cannot immediately switch entirely to electricity.

2. MoIT: No Supply Shortage When Switching to E10

• Supply Assurance: MoIT affirms that domestic and imported sources of mineral gasoline and ethanol are sufficient for E10 blending.
• Ethanol Capacity: 6 domestic ethanol plants have a total capacity of 500,000 m3/year, meeting 40-50% of demand for blending E5 and E10.
• Import Sources: The shortfall can be imported directly from the US and Brazil (supplying >80% of global ethanol) or from hubs like Singapore and South Korea.
• Mineral Gasoline: Domestic production capacity is sufficient for the base fuel. Wholesalers have completed storage infrastructure for large-scale blending.

3. Natural Gas: The Bridge for Energy Transition

• Role: Dr. Nguyen Quoc Thap (Vietnam Oil and Gas Association) states that natural gas is a “bridge” fuel, transitioning from coal/oil to cleaner energy, essential for Net Zero 2050.
• Benefits: Lower emissions than coal, abundant global reserves, and provides flexibility for the power system to integrate renewable energy (wind/solar).
• Bottlenecks:
  • Policy: Lack of stable, long-term mechanisms. Mr. Le Anh Tuan (GreenYellow) noted policies do not yet create enough motivation for long-term investment.
  • Investment: High infrastructure costs and long payback periods discourage investors if policy risks are high.
  • Coordination: Overlapping regulations create barriers.
• MoIT View: Mr. Bui Quoc Hung (Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority) stated that new National Assembly resolutions allow flexible planning adjustments for transmission and gas power centers, no longer bound by 5-year cycles.

4. Proposal to Adjust National Energy Master Plan

• Context: MoIT is drafting a decision to adjust the National Energy Master Plan for 2021-2030, vision to 2050.
• Reasons for Adjustment:
  • Higher Economic Goals: 2025 growth target of 8% and double-digit growth for 2026-2030 require more energy.
  • Higher-level Plans: Adjustments in National Marine Spatial Planning and Power Plan VIII.
  • Technology: Politburo Resolution 57 on science/tech breakthroughs requires new energy infrastructure (new/clean energy).
• Objectives: Ensure energy security, effective use of domestic resources combined with imports, and development of an independent, autonomous energy industry ecosystem based on renewable energy.