Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for January 28, 2026

A. POSITIVE INFORMATION

Target: According to the 2026 action program, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment aims for an export turnover of approximately 73-74 billion USD, surpassing the 70.09 billion USD achieved in 2025.
Strategy: Focus on key product groups capable of maintaining value growth and expanding markets.
Key Drivers: To realize this goal, the focus is on enhancing value-added through deep processing, meeting requirements for traceability and green standards, while improving institutions and cutting compliance costs for businesses.
Role: The Ministry emphasizes this as a key factor for the sector to maintain its role as an economic pillar amidst global uncertainty.

WB Forecast: The World Bank’s latest report forecasts global growth to remain stable at 2.6% in 2026 and rise to 2.7% in 2027.
Resilience: The global economy is showing better-than-expected resilience, especially the US economy.
Income Gap: While developed economies have surpassed 2019 per capita income levels, about 20% of developing economies still have lower per capita incomes.
Forecast for Developing Nations: Growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2026 (from 4.2% in 2025) before rising to 4.1% in 2027 as trade tensions ease and investment flows increase.
Low-Income Countries: Growth is expected to average 5.6% in 2026-2027, driven by domestic demand and export recovery, but insufficient to close the income gap.
Recommendation: Mr. Indermit Gill (WB Chief Economist) advises governments in emerging economies to liberalize investment, curb public spending, and invest in technology and education to avoid stagnation.

HSBC Report: In “ASEAN Perspectives – Year 2026”, HSBC assesses that ASEAN’s trade momentum remains robust even as “frontloading” orders decline.
Market Share: ASEAN’s share of global exports increased sharply from 7.4% (2023) to nearly 9.4% (2025).
Driver: The market share gain is driven by broad-based exports to many countries rather than just traditional markets like the US or China.
Position: As a “tariff shelter” and hardware supplier for the AI boom, ASEAN (led by Vietnam) is well-positioned to withstand trade hurdles in 2026 and continue attracting FDI.

Growth: WB estimates the US economy grew by 2.1% in 2025, bringing the 2022-2025 average to 2.6% (higher than the pre-pandemic decade average of 2.2%).
Potential Growth: Mr. Ayhan Kose (WB Deputy Chief Economist) suggests the “potential growth rate” (maximum non-inflationary speed) may have increased to 2.2% – 2.4% due to investment booms and improved productivity.
2026 Outlook: WB forecasts US growth at 2.2% in 2026, while BNP Paribas is more optimistic at 2.9%.
Impact: Higher potential growth means the economy can expand faster without the Fed raising interest rates.

Roadmap: From June 1, 2026, E10 gasoline (10% ethanol) will be sold nationwide.
Pilot Results: Mr. Ho Ngoc Linh (Petrolimex) reported that after 5 months of piloting in 3 major cities, sales volume increased, and zero complaints were recorded regarding vehicle damage.
Challenge: Domestic refineries cannot yet fully supply high-quality fuel meeting new standards, necessitating imports.
Proposal: Petrolimex suggests tax/fee adjustments for E10 to ensure reasonable pricing and consumer acceptance.
Perspective: Mr. Do Van Tuan (Biofuel Association) emphasizes that Vietnam will still rely on fossil and biofuels as a pillar for years to come, and cannot immediately switch entirely to electricity.

Supply Assurance: MoIT affirms that domestic and imported sources of mineral gasoline and ethanol are sufficient for E10 blending.
Ethanol Capacity: 6 domestic ethanol plants have a total capacity of 500,000 m3/year, meeting 40-50% of demand for blending E5 and E10.
Import Sources: The shortfall can be imported directly from the US and Brazil (supplying >80% of global ethanol) or from hubs like Singapore and South Korea.
Mineral Gasoline: Domestic production capacity is sufficient for the base fuel. Wholesalers have completed storage infrastructure for large-scale blending.

Role: Dr. Nguyen Quoc Thap (Vietnam Oil and Gas Association) states that natural gas is a “bridge” fuel, transitioning from coal/oil to cleaner energy, essential for Net Zero 2050.
Benefits: Lower emissions than coal, abundant global reserves, and provides flexibility for the power system to integrate renewable energy (wind/solar).
Bottlenecks:
- Policy: Lack of stable, long-term mechanisms. Mr. Le Anh Tuan (GreenYellow) noted policies do not yet create enough motivation for long-term investment.
- Investment: High infrastructure costs and long payback periods discourage investors if policy risks are high.
- Coordination: Overlapping regulations create barriers.
MoIT View: Mr. Bui Quoc Hung (Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority) stated that new National Assembly resolutions allow flexible planning adjustments for transmission and gas power centers, no longer bound by 5-year cycles.

Context: MoIT is drafting a decision to adjust the National Energy Master Plan for 2021-2030, vision to 2050.
Reasons for Adjustment:
- Higher Economic Goals: 2025 growth target of 8% and double-digit growth for 2026-2030 require more energy.
- Higher-level Plans: Adjustments in National Marine Spatial Planning and Power Plan VIII.
- Technology: Politburo Resolution 57 on science/tech breakthroughs requires new energy infrastructure (new/clean energy).
Objectives: Ensure energy security, effective use of domestic resources combined with imports, and development of an independent, autonomous energy industry ecosystem based on renewable energy.