Vietnam Trade 2026: Record Growth Meets Structural Challenges
What Challenges Does Import-Export Face in 2026?
In 2025, Vietnam’s import-export set a new record in scale but still faced many bottlenecks regarding value-added, market structure, and the ability to utilize FTAs.
Record Turnover but Many Bottlenecks The import-export picture of 2025 closed with many bright spots in terms of scale. According to the report from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment) and the Ministry of Finance, the total merchandise import-export turnover for the whole year reached USD 930.05 billion, an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous year.
- Exports: Reached USD 475.04 billion.
- Imports: Reached USD 455.01 billion.
- Trade Balance: Maintained a trade surplus of USD 20.03 billion, continuing to be an important fulcrum for macroeconomic stability.
Specifically, in December 2025, total import-export turnover reached USD 88.72 billion, an increase of 15.1% compared to the previous month and 25.7% compared to the same period last year. The large scale demonstrates the economy’s resilience amidst a volatile global trade context.
However, behind the impressive numbers are “bottlenecks.” Also according to the General Statistics Office report, in the export goods structure, the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sector continued to play a dominant role, accounting for 77.3% of total export turnover. Meanwhile, the domestic economic sector only reached USD 107.95 billion, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year. The large export turnover of the FDI sector makes goods exports susceptible to policy fluctuations and global supply chain shifts.
The structure of export goods in 2025 also clearly reflects this characteristic:
- Processing Industry: Reached USD 421.47 billion, accounting for 88.7% of total turnover, yet the majority remains outsourcing and assembly.
- Agro-forestry Products: Reached USD 39.46 billion (8.3%).
- Fishery Products: Reached USD 11.29 billion (2.4%). These are fields where Vietnam has the potential to increase value but have not been exploited commensurately.
On the import side, turnover for the whole year reached USD 455.01 billion, an increase of 19.4%. Notably, the group of production materials accounted for 93.6%, of which machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts accounted for 52.7%. This shows that domestic production still depends heavily on imported inputs.
Expert Analysis: High Turnover, Low Value Speaking with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Industry and Trade Information Center, assessed: “Vietnam is currently an export powerhouse with high turnover, but low value-added. The main cause is that industrial export products are mainly outsourcing and assembly; while agricultural and aquatic products are mostly exported raw and lack brands.”
According to Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, the export model of large turnover but low value-added makes the benefits obtained incommensurate, while risks are increasingly large. A permanent threat is the risk of being subject to trade remedy measures due to the high export growth rate in many items. Besides that are tariff and non-tariff barriers in the context of a weakening multilateral trading system.
Another bottleneck is the ability to utilize Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). With 17 FTAs signed with about 60 countries and territories, Vietnam is in the group of deepest integration in ASEAN. However, in reality, only about 30% of enterprises effectively exploit FTAs, while the rest have not utilized or have left opportunities open. This causes the “integration passport” to not fully exert its value.
The import-export market structure also poses long-term challenges:
- United States: Continues to be the largest export market with a turnover of USD 153.2 billion.
- China: Is the largest import market with USD 186.0 billion. The large trade deficit from China and ASEAN clearly reflects regional supply chain dependence, simultaneously increasing risks when markets fluctuate.
Enhancing Export Quality Entering 2026, import-export prospects are assessed positively thanks to the foundation of large scale and a widespread FTA network. However, sustainable growth room only truly opens when core bottlenecks are removed.
According to Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, the focus of the coming period is the shift from growth by quantity to growth by quality. This requires strengthening the export of products with high value-added, high technology content, and high localization rates, based on the internal strength of domestic enterprises. Simultaneously, it is necessary to improve quality, invest in deep processing, innovate, and build brands instead of mere outsourcing.
Reality shows that standardizing the supply chain according to high standards is opening a positive direction. Recently, the cold storage and irradiation plants of TOANPHAT Group were put into operation and granted EU Code for the function of preserving frozen seafood exported to the EU. This is proof that Vietnamese enterprises are gradually meeting the strict requirements of high-end markets. Operating a logistics chain according to a unified standard system helps reduce risks, improve competitiveness, and create a foundation for sustainable development.
To effectively exploit FTAs in 2026, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong emphasized the need to focus on four pillars:
- Improving competitiveness.
- Improving quality and optimizing costs.
- Increasing product value through deep processing and branding.
- Strictly complying with FTA regulations.
This is a difficult but inevitable path if Vietnamese enterprises want to go far in the international market.
From a policy perspective, the State continues to play a companion role through improving the business environment, training human resources, providing information, and connecting partners. Dr. Le Quoc Phuong affirmed that policy only becomes effective when enterprises proactively improve internal strength and integration thinking.
The year 2025 laid the foundation with new records in scale. 2026 is expected to be a pivotal phase for Vietnam’s import-export to overcome barriers regarding value, structure, and integration, advancing towards a more sustainable, higher quality, and less risky growth model.
In 2026, import-export room will come from demand recovery in major markets, deep exploitation of FTAs, and global supply chain shifts. However, pressure from trade remedies, green standards, and increasingly strict origin requirements will be major barriers to import-export.
