Vietnam Industry and Trade News Bulletin for November 12, 2025

A. POSITIVE NEWS

1. 2025 Exports Forecast to Set New Record With a growth rate of 16.2% in the first 10 months, Vietnam’s merchandise exports are sprinting towards the finish line, expected to far exceed the 12% target set earlier this year.

• Performance: For 4 consecutive months, export turnover exceeded $42 billion/month.
• Forecast: If the monthly average of $40 billion is maintained for the last 2 months, total export turnover could reach a record $470-471 billion.
• GDP Impact: Driven by trade growth, international organizations like Standard Chartered, HSBC, and UOB have raised Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5% – 7.9% .

2. Fruit & Vegetable Exports Expected to Exceed $8.5 Billion In the first 10 months of 2025, fruit and vegetable exports reached $7.09 billion (up 15% year-on-year). China remains the largest market (62.9%), followed by the US and South Korea. Key items like durian, banana, and pomelo continue to expand into demanding markets thanks to high-tech applications and strict compliance with growing region codes .

B. GENERAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

1. Government Proposes Cutting 25 Conditional Business Lines Presenting the draft amended Law on Investment to the National Assembly on November 11, the Government proposed removing 25 conditional business lines and shifting to a post-check mechanism to reduce costs and barriers for businesses.

• Outbound Investment: The proposal also suggests removing the requirement for investment policy approval for outbound projects under 20 billion VND; these would only need to register foreign exchange transactions with the State Bank .

2. Proposal to Pilot “Free Trade Zone” in Hai Phong The Government presented a draft Resolution to the National Assembly to replace the specific mechanisms for Hai Phong city. A key highlight is the proposal to establish a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in Hai Phong with breakthrough policies to attract investment, finance, and high-quality human resources.

3. Proposal: Inspect Businesses Only Once a Year A draft Resolution on specific policies for private sector development proposes a principle that inspection agencies must not inspect a business or household business more than once a year, unless there is clear evidence of violations. The draft also encourages remote, data-based inspections .

4. Developing Credit Rating Market The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) and ADB organized a workshop to promote the credit rating market. New regulations (Decree 245/2025/ND-CP) require mandatory credit ratings for public bond offerings, aiming to increase transparency and investor protection in the capital market .

C. ENERGY

1. Proposal to Reduce VAT by 2% for Petrol and Oil The draft Resolution on VAT reduction proposes extending the 2% reduction (from 10% to 8%) until the end of 2026. Notably, the Government proposes expanding this reduction to include petrol and oil to stabilize the macroeconomy and support production/consumption, despite these items being subject to excise tax .

2. Adapting to Rising Electricity Prices As electricity prices trend upwards, businesses (especially in steel, cement, textiles) where energy costs account for 8-20% of operations are seeking ways to adapt. Experts recommend support policies like green credit and tax incentives for investing in energy-saving technologies .

D. EXPORT – IMPORT

1. Pepper Exports High but Face US Tax Hurdles Vietnam exported over 26,000 tons of pepper in April 2025 (up 58% in value). However, the industry faces challenges in Q3 2025 as the US may increase tariffs from 10% to 25-30% under reciprocal tax policies, putting Vietnamese pepper at a disadvantage compared to Brazil and Indonesia .

2. Lang Son Digitizes Customs Clearance Lang Son province has implemented a “Digital Border Gate” platform and 24/7 tax payment system, significantly reducing time and costs for businesses and allowing tax payments anytime, anywhere .

3. Vietnamese Agriculture at Saudi Food Show HCMC businesses participated in The Saudi Food Show 2025 to promote high-quality agricultural products and expand market share in the Middle East .

E. DOMESTIC MARKET & E-COMMERCE

1. Avocado and Mango Farmers Face Losses

• Avocados (Lam Dong): Despite entering harvest season, farmers face “bumper crop, low price” issues. Avocado area is shrinking as farmers switch crops .
• Australian Mangoes (Khanh Hoa): Prices have dropped so low that farmers are leaving fruit to rot. Exports are limited due to weather affecting quality, while domestic consumption is weak .

2. Strict Penalties for Undeclared Online Business Tax The Tax Authority issued a warning that online businesses (e-commerce, digital platforms) failing to declare taxes will be strictly penalized. Authorities are promoting digital tools like eTax Mobile to facilitate compliance for individuals and household businesses .

3. Warning: 80% of Goods Sold Online are Fake/Imitation Ms. Vu Kim Hanh, Chairwoman of the High Quality Vietnamese Goods Business Association, warned that up to 80% of goods on online platforms are fake or imitation, hurting genuine manufacturers. Authorities have removed over 44,500 violating products recently .

F. INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION

1. Government Directive on FTAs for 2025 The Government directed the MoIT to build a plan for negotiating and signing new FTAs in 2025 with potential partners in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. The directive also emphasizes completing negotiations with the US and opening the market for tech products .

2. German Businesses Committed to Vietnam The German Business Association (GBA) reaffirmed its long-term commitment to Vietnam, viewing it as a resilient and high-potential investment destination despite global challenges